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Politics·Osun

Osun State Gubernatorial Election Winner

icon for Osun State Gubernatorial Election Winner
Politics·Osun

Osun State Gubernatorial Election Winner

Ademola Adeleke 75%

Bola Oyebamiji 26%

Farinloye Olarenwaju <1%

Esan Olajide <1%

Polymarket

$71,602 Vol.

Ademola Adeleke 75%

Bola Oyebamiji 26%

Farinloye Olarenwaju <1%

Esan Olajide <1%

Polymarket

$71,602 Vol.

icon for Ademola Adeleke

Ademola Adeleke

$26,997 Vol.

75%

icon for Bola Oyebamiji

Bola Oyebamiji

$25,581 Vol.

26%

icon for Farinloye Olarenwaju

Farinloye Olarenwaju

$1,563 Vol.

<1%

icon for Esan Olajide

Esan Olajide

$1,519 Vol.

<1%

icon for Najeem Salam

Najeem Salam

$6,381 Vol.

<1%

icon for Adeagbo Opawoye

Adeagbo Opawoye

$1,265 Vol.

<1%

icon for Adesina Adeyemi-Doro

Adesina Adeyemi-Doro

$1,069 Vol.

<1%

icon for Adewale Adebayo

Adewale Adebayo

$1,090 Vol.

<1%

icon for Taofeek Adeleke

Taofeek Adeleke

$3,254 Vol.

<1%

icon for Saliu Oyelami

Saliu Oyelami

$1,512 Vol.

<1%

icon for Adefemi Adesuyi

Adefemi Adesuyi

$1,371 Vol.

<1%

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Osun State, Nigeria on August 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Osun State and Nigeria, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://inecnigeria.org).Ademola Adeleke holds the clearest lead in trader assessments for the August 15, 2026 Osun State gubernatorial election as the Accord Party incumbent seeking a second term. His positioning stems from completed primaries, a late-2025 switch from the PDP that carried most state assembly members along, and a record of infrastructure, welfare, and sectoral projects that analysts link to strong name recognition and grassroots organization across local government areas. The main challengers—Bola Oyebamiji of the APC and Najeem Salaam of the ADC—face a fragmented opposition field, with 14 candidates on the ballot narrowing attention to three frontrunners. Election-day voting and security arrangements have reinforced the view that Adeleke’s incumbency edge and statewide visibility outweigh other factors in the current consensus.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Osun State, Nigeria on August 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Osun State and Nigeria, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://inecnigeria.org).
Volume
$71,602
End Date
Aug 15, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:22 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Osun State, Nigeria on August 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Osun State and Nigeria, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://inecnigeria.org).
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Osun State, Nigeria on August 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Osun State and Nigeria, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://inecnigeria.org).Ademola Adeleke holds the clearest lead in trader assessments for the August 15, 2026 Osun State gubernatorial election as the Accord Party incumbent seeking a second term. His positioning stems from completed primaries, a late-2025 switch from the PDP that carried most state assembly members along, and a record of infrastructure, welfare, and sectoral projects that analysts link to strong name recognition and grassroots organization across local government areas. The main challengers—Bola Oyebamiji of the APC and Najeem Salaam of the ADC—face a fragmented opposition field, with 14 candidates on the ballot narrowing attention to three frontrunners. Election-day voting and security arrangements have reinforced the view that Adeleke’s incumbency edge and statewide visibility outweigh other factors in the current consensus.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Osun State, Nigeria on August 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Osun State and Nigeria, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://inecnigeria.org).
Volume
$71,602
End Date
Aug 15, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:22 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Osun State, Nigeria on August 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Osun State and Nigeria, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://inecnigeria.org).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Osun State Gubernatorial Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ademola Adeleke" at 75%, followed by "Bola Oyebamiji" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Osun State Gubernatorial Election Winner" has generated $71.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Osun State Gubernatorial Election Winner," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Osun State Gubernatorial Election Winner" is "Ademola Adeleke" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Bola Oyebamiji" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Osun State Gubernatorial Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.