The Odyssey leads the early 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay market at 27.5% implied probability, driven by Christopher Nolan’s high-profile adaptation of Homer’s epic, which has earned strong critical and audience reception since its release alongside massive box office. The Black Ball sits close behind at 24%, fueled by its acclaimed Cannes premiere, Best Director win for Los Javis, and ambitious queer historical narrative that positions it as a serious contender in a category often favoring literary or epic source material. With many outcomes still clustered near even odds this far out, momentum will hinge on upcoming guild screenings, precursor awards, and how late-2026 releases like Project Hail Mary or Dune: Part Three perform in reviews and awards campaigns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
The Odyssey 28%
The Black Ball 24%
The Invite 12%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth 7.4%
$10,334 Vol.
$10,334 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
The Odyssey
28%
The Black Ball
24%
The Invite
12%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
7%
Cry to Heaven
6%
The Social Reckoning
6%
Dune: Part Three
5%
Project Hail Mary
5%
Wildwood
<1%
Toy Story 5
<1%
All of a Sudden
<1%
The Whisper Man
<1%
Clarissa
<1%
Saturn Return
<1%
Ink
<1%
The Odyssey 28%
The Black Ball 24%
The Invite 12%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth 7.4%
$10,334 Vol.
$10,334 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
The Odyssey
$1,082 Vol.
28%
The Black Ball
$7,645 Vol.
24%
The Invite
$199 Vol.
12%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
$106 Vol.
7%
Cry to Heaven
$148 Vol.
6%
The Social Reckoning
$139 Vol.
6%
Dune: Part Three
$91 Vol.
5%
Project Hail Mary
$117 Vol.
5%
Wildwood
$142 Vol.
<1%
Toy Story 5
$174 Vol.
<1%
All of a Sudden
$109 Vol.
<1%
The Whisper Man
$99 Vol.
<1%
Clarissa
$76 Vol.
<1%
Saturn Return
$97 Vol.
<1%
Ink
$109 Vol.
<1%
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Odyssey leads the early 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay market at 27.5% implied probability, driven by Christopher Nolan’s high-profile adaptation of Homer’s epic, which has earned strong critical and audience reception since its release alongside massive box office. The Black Ball sits close behind at 24%, fueled by its acclaimed Cannes premiere, Best Director win for Los Javis, and ambitious queer historical narrative that positions it as a serious contender in a category often favoring literary or epic source material. With many outcomes still clustered near even odds this far out, momentum will hinge on upcoming guild screenings, precursor awards, and how late-2026 releases like Project Hail Mary or Dune: Part Three perform in reviews and awards campaigns.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ET
Volume
$10,334End Date
Mar 14, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Odyssey leads the early 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay market at 27.5% implied probability, driven by Christopher Nolan’s high-profile adaptation of Homer’s epic, which has earned strong critical and audience reception since its release alongside massive box office. The Black Ball sits close behind at 24%, fueled by its acclaimed Cannes premiere, Best Director win for Los Javis, and ambitious queer historical narrative that positions it as a serious contender in a category often favoring literary or epic source material. With many outcomes still clustered near even odds this far out, momentum will hinge on upcoming guild screenings, precursor awards, and how late-2026 releases like Project Hail Mary or Dune: Part Three perform in reviews and awards campaigns.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,334End Date
Mar 14, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Odyssey leads the early 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay market at 27.5% implied probability, driven by Christopher Nolan’s high-profile adaptation of Homer’s epic, which has earned strong critical and audience reception since its release alongside massive box office. The Black Ball sits close behind at 24%, fueled by its acclaimed Cannes premiere, Best Director win for Los Javis, and ambitious queer historical narrative that positions it as a serious contender in a category often favoring literary or epic source material. With many outcomes still clustered near even odds this far out, momentum will hinge on upcoming guild screenings, precursor awards, and how late-2026 releases like Project Hail Mary or Dune: Part Three perform in reviews and awards campaigns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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