New York’s 10th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat in New York City, where registered Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans and recent election results have shown consistent large margins for the party. Brad Lander’s victory over incumbent Dan Goldman in the June Democratic primary consolidated support behind a single nominee ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, while the Republican primary produced only nominal opposition in Jennifer Moore. Forecasters rate the race as safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the market’s 96.9 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A realistic shift would require an unusually large national Republican wave, a late major scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, or an unforeseen third-party surge that fragments the vote—none of which has materialized in current polling or fundraising data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-10 House Election Winner
NY-10 House Election Winner
$52,226 Vol.
$52,226 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
2%
$52,226 Vol.
$52,226 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$16,728 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$35,498 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 10th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat in New York City, where registered Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans and recent election results have shown consistent large margins for the party. Brad Lander’s victory over incumbent Dan Goldman in the June Democratic primary consolidated support behind a single nominee ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, while the Republican primary produced only nominal opposition in Jennifer Moore. Forecasters rate the race as safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the market’s 96.9 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A realistic shift would require an unusually large national Republican wave, a late major scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, or an unforeseen third-party surge that fragments the vote—none of which has materialized in current polling or fundraising data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$52,226End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 10th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat in New York City, where registered Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans and recent election results have shown consistent large margins for the party. Brad Lander’s victory over incumbent Dan Goldman in the June Democratic primary consolidated support behind a single nominee ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, while the Republican primary produced only nominal opposition in Jennifer Moore. Forecasters rate the race as safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the market’s 96.9 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A realistic shift would require an unusually large national Republican wave, a late major scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, or an unforeseen third-party surge that fragments the vote—none of which has materialized in current polling or fundraising data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$52,226End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 10th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat in New York City, where registered Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans and recent election results have shown consistent large margins for the party. Brad Lander’s victory over incumbent Dan Goldman in the June Democratic primary consolidated support behind a single nominee ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, while the Republican primary produced only nominal opposition in Jennifer Moore. Forecasters rate the race as safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the market’s 96.9 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A realistic shift would require an unusually large national Republican wave, a late major scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, or an unforeseen third-party surge that fragments the vote—none of which has materialized in current polling or fundraising data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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