LaMonica McIver, the Democratic incumbent in New Jersey’s 10th congressional district, secured renomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 85% of the vote and faces Republican Carmen Bucco in the November general election. The district’s voter registration—approximately 54% Democratic versus 8-10% Republican—combined with its urban core in Newark and surrounding areas, has produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s established fundraising edge and limited Republican organizational presence. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats incorporates these structural factors. An upset would require an extraordinary late-cycle event, such as a major personal or ethical controversy enveloping McIver or an unprecedented national partisan swing that overcomes the district’s baseline partisan composition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-10 House Election Winner
NJ-10 House Election Winner
$46,664 Vol.
$46,664 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
5%
$46,664 Vol.
$46,664 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,890 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$32,774 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).LaMonica McIver, the Democratic incumbent in New Jersey’s 10th congressional district, secured renomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 85% of the vote and faces Republican Carmen Bucco in the November general election. The district’s voter registration—approximately 54% Democratic versus 8-10% Republican—combined with its urban core in Newark and surrounding areas, has produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s established fundraising edge and limited Republican organizational presence. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats incorporates these structural factors. An upset would require an extraordinary late-cycle event, such as a major personal or ethical controversy enveloping McIver or an unprecedented national partisan swing that overcomes the district’s baseline partisan composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$46,664End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).LaMonica McIver, the Democratic incumbent in New Jersey’s 10th congressional district, secured renomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 85% of the vote and faces Republican Carmen Bucco in the November general election. The district’s voter registration—approximately 54% Democratic versus 8-10% Republican—combined with its urban core in Newark and surrounding areas, has produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s established fundraising edge and limited Republican organizational presence. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats incorporates these structural factors. An upset would require an extraordinary late-cycle event, such as a major personal or ethical controversy enveloping McIver or an unprecedented national partisan swing that overcomes the district’s baseline partisan composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$46,664End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...LaMonica McIver, the Democratic incumbent in New Jersey’s 10th congressional district, secured renomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 85% of the vote and faces Republican Carmen Bucco in the November general election. The district’s voter registration—approximately 54% Democratic versus 8-10% Republican—combined with its urban core in Newark and surrounding areas, has produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s established fundraising edge and limited Republican organizational presence. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats incorporates these structural factors. An upset would require an extraordinary late-cycle event, such as a major personal or ethical controversy enveloping McIver or an unprecedented national partisan swing that overcomes the district’s baseline partisan composition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions