Recent polling averages ahead of the September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election place the AfD in a clear lead followed by the SPD, positioning Die Linke as the most probable third-place finisher according to trader consensus. This reflects stable survey trends showing Linke support in the low-to-mid teens, ahead of the CDU and smaller parties such as the Greens, BSW, and FDP that remain near or below the 5% threshold. The market's lower implied probabilities for the CDU and minor parties align with their weaker regional performance in eastern state contests, while the large number of 50% options for other parties indicates limited realistic paths to third place. No major shifts from candidate announcements or coalition signals have altered these relative standings in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLinke 75%
CDU 24%
Grüne 1.6%
SPD 1.3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Linke
75%
CDU
24%
Grüne
2%
SPD
1%
FDP
1%
FW
<1%
BSW
<1%
AfD
<1%
Linke 75%
CDU 24%
Grüne 1.6%
SPD 1.3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Linke
$3,519 Vol.
75%
CDU
$1,748 Vol.
24%
Grüne
$144 Vol.
2%
SPD
$115 Vol.
1%
FDP
$177 Vol.
1%
FW
$284 Vol.
<1%
BSW
$249 Vol.
<1%
AfD
$125 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling averages ahead of the September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election place the AfD in a clear lead followed by the SPD, positioning Die Linke as the most probable third-place finisher according to trader consensus. This reflects stable survey trends showing Linke support in the low-to-mid teens, ahead of the CDU and smaller parties such as the Greens, BSW, and FDP that remain near or below the 5% threshold. The market's lower implied probabilities for the CDU and minor parties align with their weaker regional performance in eastern state contests, while the large number of 50% options for other parties indicates limited realistic paths to third place. No major shifts from candidate announcements or coalition signals have altered these relative standings in recent weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$6,360End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling averages ahead of the September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election place the AfD in a clear lead followed by the SPD, positioning Die Linke as the most probable third-place finisher according to trader consensus. This reflects stable survey trends showing Linke support in the low-to-mid teens, ahead of the CDU and smaller parties such as the Greens, BSW, and FDP that remain near or below the 5% threshold. The market's lower implied probabilities for the CDU and minor parties align with their weaker regional performance in eastern state contests, while the large number of 50% options for other parties indicates limited realistic paths to third place. No major shifts from candidate announcements or coalition signals have altered these relative standings in recent weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$6,360End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages ahead of the September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election place the AfD in a clear lead followed by the SPD, positioning Die Linke as the most probable third-place finisher according to trader consensus. This reflects stable survey trends showing Linke support in the low-to-mid teens, ahead of the CDU and smaller parties such as the Greens, BSW, and FDP that remain near or below the 5% threshold. The market's lower implied probabilities for the CDU and minor parties align with their weaker regional performance in eastern state contests, while the large number of 50% options for other parties indicates limited realistic paths to third place. No major shifts from candidate announcements or coalition signals have altered these relative standings in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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