Recent weather model consensus from sources such as Météo-France analogs and GFS ensembles indicates a mild overnight minimum near 16–17°C for Paris on August 30, driven by persistent southwesterly flow, extensive cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, and dew points supporting only modest temperature drops after a daytime high around 23–24°C. This aligns with the market's leading probabilities on 17°C (51.5%) and 16°C (32.5%), which reflect trader weighting of these stable short-range forecasts. Above-average temperatures relative to the long-term August 30 climatological low of 13.4°C further support the narrow range around these values, with only modest uncertainty from potential minor model shifts in cloud timing or wind. No significant recent changes in steering patterns or frontal activity have altered this outlook in the past 24–48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 30?
17°C 51%
16°C 32%
18°C 14%
19°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
32%
17°C
51%
18°C
14%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
17°C 51%
16°C 32%
18°C 14%
19°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
12°C or below
$225 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$273 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$51 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$738 Vol.
32%
17°C
$1,116 Vol.
51%
18°C
$266 Vol.
14%
19°C
$135 Vol.
1%
20°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$166 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$45 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources such as Météo-France analogs and GFS ensembles indicates a mild overnight minimum near 16–17°C for Paris on August 30, driven by persistent southwesterly flow, extensive cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, and dew points supporting only modest temperature drops after a daytime high around 23–24°C. This aligns with the market's leading probabilities on 17°C (51.5%) and 16°C (32.5%), which reflect trader weighting of these stable short-range forecasts. Above-average temperatures relative to the long-term August 30 climatological low of 13.4°C further support the narrow range around these values, with only modest uncertainty from potential minor model shifts in cloud timing or wind. No significant recent changes in steering patterns or frontal activity have altered this outlook in the past 24–48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$3,094End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources such as Météo-France analogs and GFS ensembles indicates a mild overnight minimum near 16–17°C for Paris on August 30, driven by persistent southwesterly flow, extensive cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, and dew points supporting only modest temperature drops after a daytime high around 23–24°C. This aligns with the market's leading probabilities on 17°C (51.5%) and 16°C (32.5%), which reflect trader weighting of these stable short-range forecasts. Above-average temperatures relative to the long-term August 30 climatological low of 13.4°C further support the narrow range around these values, with only modest uncertainty from potential minor model shifts in cloud timing or wind. No significant recent changes in steering patterns or frontal activity have altered this outlook in the past 24–48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,094End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model consensus from sources such as Météo-France analogs and GFS ensembles indicates a mild overnight minimum near 16–17°C for Paris on August 30, driven by persistent southwesterly flow, extensive cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, and dew points supporting only modest temperature drops after a daytime high around 23–24°C. This aligns with the market's leading probabilities on 17°C (51.5%) and 16°C (32.5%), which reflect trader weighting of these stable short-range forecasts. Above-average temperatures relative to the long-term August 30 climatological low of 13.4°C further support the narrow range around these values, with only modest uncertainty from potential minor model shifts in cloud timing or wind. No significant recent changes in steering patterns or frontal activity have altered this outlook in the past 24–48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions