The crowded field of more than 20 candidates for the October 4, 2026, Lima mayoral election has kept implied probabilities tightly distributed, with no single contender exceeding roughly 27 percent in current trader pricing. Recent candidate withdrawals, including that of Luis Rubio, have produced modest shifts in polling averages, elevating figures such as Carlos Bruce and Francis Allison while underscoring the impact of last-minute adjustments on vote intention. Fragmented party structures and the absence of a dominant incumbent or coalition continue to limit any frontrunner’s path to a majority, leaving outcomes sensitive to turnout patterns and late campaign developments through early October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCarlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 27%
Francis James Allison Oyague 21%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega 20.6%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera 9.4%
$41,762 Vol.
$41,762 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
27%
Francis James Allison Oyague
21%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
12%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
9%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
19%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
6%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
5%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
4%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
4%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
4%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
3%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
3%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
3%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
3%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
3%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
2%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
2%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 27%
Francis James Allison Oyague 21%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega 20.6%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera 9.4%
$41,762 Vol.
$41,762 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
$10,017 Vol.
27%
Francis James Allison Oyague
$11,047 Vol.
21%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
$468 Vol.
12%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
$4,791 Vol.
9%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
$538 Vol.
19%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
$415 Vol.
6%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
$204 Vol.
5%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
$1,025 Vol.
4%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
$274 Vol.
4%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
$382 Vol.
4%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
$480 Vol.
3%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
$434 Vol.
3%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
$208 Vol.
3%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
$6,620 Vol.
3%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
$346 Vol.
3%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
$574 Vol.
2%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
$224 Vol.
2%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
$219 Vol.
1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
$243 Vol.
1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
$225 Vol.
1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
$2,728 Vol.
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
$300 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).The crowded field of more than 20 candidates for the October 4, 2026, Lima mayoral election has kept implied probabilities tightly distributed, with no single contender exceeding roughly 27 percent in current trader pricing. Recent candidate withdrawals, including that of Luis Rubio, have produced modest shifts in polling averages, elevating figures such as Carlos Bruce and Francis Allison while underscoring the impact of last-minute adjustments on vote intention. Fragmented party structures and the absence of a dominant incumbent or coalition continue to limit any frontrunner’s path to a majority, leaving outcomes sensitive to turnout patterns and late campaign developments through early October.
The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Volume
$41,762End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).The crowded field of more than 20 candidates for the October 4, 2026, Lima mayoral election has kept implied probabilities tightly distributed, with no single contender exceeding roughly 27 percent in current trader pricing. Recent candidate withdrawals, including that of Luis Rubio, have produced modest shifts in polling averages, elevating figures such as Carlos Bruce and Francis Allison while underscoring the impact of last-minute adjustments on vote intention. Fragmented party structures and the absence of a dominant incumbent or coalition continue to limit any frontrunner’s path to a majority, leaving outcomes sensitive to turnout patterns and late campaign developments through early October.
The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Volume
$41,762End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The crowded field of more than 20 candidates for the October 4, 2026, Lima mayoral election has kept implied probabilities tightly distributed, with no single contender exceeding roughly 27 percent in current trader pricing. Recent candidate withdrawals, including that of Luis Rubio, have produced modest shifts in polling averages, elevating figures such as Carlos Bruce and Francis Allison while underscoring the impact of last-minute adjustments on vote intention. Fragmented party structures and the absence of a dominant incumbent or coalition continue to limit any frontrunner’s path to a majority, leaving outcomes sensitive to turnout patterns and late campaign developments through early October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions