Kim Jong Un maintains unchallenged authority as North Korea's Supreme Leader through mid-2026, with recent reappointment as president of the State Affairs Commission and public engagement in nuclear policy reinforcing regime stability. South Korean intelligence assessments indicate planned dynastic continuity via his daughter's positioning as heir apparent, alongside centralized party and military structures showing no verified elite fractures or health crises. Traders assign a 96.5% probability against his removal by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of internal or external pressures capable of forcing a transition in the short window ahead. A sudden incapacitating medical event or abrupt power realignment within the elite remain the primary low-probability scenarios that could still shift the outcome before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
4% chance
$194,267 Vol.
$194,267 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$194,267 Vol.
$194,267 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kim Jong Un maintains unchallenged authority as North Korea's Supreme Leader through mid-2026, with recent reappointment as president of the State Affairs Commission and public engagement in nuclear policy reinforcing regime stability. South Korean intelligence assessments indicate planned dynastic continuity via his daughter's positioning as heir apparent, alongside centralized party and military structures showing no verified elite fractures or health crises. Traders assign a 96.5% probability against his removal by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of internal or external pressures capable of forcing a transition in the short window ahead. A sudden incapacitating medical event or abrupt power realignment within the elite remain the primary low-probability scenarios that could still shift the outcome before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 1:38 PM ET
Volume
$194,267End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kim Jong Un maintains unchallenged authority as North Korea's Supreme Leader through mid-2026, with recent reappointment as president of the State Affairs Commission and public engagement in nuclear policy reinforcing regime stability. South Korean intelligence assessments indicate planned dynastic continuity via his daughter's positioning as heir apparent, alongside centralized party and military structures showing no verified elite fractures or health crises. Traders assign a 96.5% probability against his removal by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of internal or external pressures capable of forcing a transition in the short window ahead. A sudden incapacitating medical event or abrupt power realignment within the elite remain the primary low-probability scenarios that could still shift the outcome before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$194,267End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Kim Jong Un maintains unchallenged authority as North Korea's Supreme Leader through mid-2026, with recent reappointment as president of the State Affairs Commission and public engagement in nuclear policy reinforcing regime stability. South Korean intelligence assessments indicate planned dynastic continuity via his daughter's positioning as heir apparent, alongside centralized party and military structures showing no verified elite fractures or health crises. Traders assign a 96.5% probability against his removal by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of internal or external pressures capable of forcing a transition in the short window ahead. A sudden incapacitating medical event or abrupt power realignment within the elite remain the primary low-probability scenarios that could still shift the outcome before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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