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icon for Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?
Geopolitics·Middle East

Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?

icon for Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?
Geopolitics·Middle East

Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?

$100,186 Vol.

Aug 31, 2026
Polymarket

$100,186 Vol.

Polymarket

August 31

$19,391 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Tyre in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Tyre will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, launched in March 2026 to target Hezbollah infrastructure and establish a forward defense area, have featured ground advances reaching hills immediately south of Tyre alongside repeated airstrikes and evacuation orders for the city and surrounding areas. These actions followed heightened Hezbollah rocket and drone activity, with strikes intensifying in April through June 2026 after displacement directives covering substantial portions of southern Lebanon. A U.S.-mediated truce announced in June has paused major fighting, yet Israeli forces remain positioned near the city amid ongoing concerns over Hezbollah regrouping. Traders assess entry probabilities based on any resumption of ground maneuvers, buffer zone enforcement, or shifts in the fragile ceasefire.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Tyre in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Tyre will count.

Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$100,186
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Tyre in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Tyre will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Tyre in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Tyre will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, launched in March 2026 to target Hezbollah infrastructure and establish a forward defense area, have featured ground advances reaching hills immediately south of Tyre alongside repeated airstrikes and evacuation orders for the city and surrounding areas. These actions followed heightened Hezbollah rocket and drone activity, with strikes intensifying in April through June 2026 after displacement directives covering substantial portions of southern Lebanon. A U.S.-mediated truce announced in June has paused major fighting, yet Israeli forces remain positioned near the city amid ongoing concerns over Hezbollah regrouping. Traders assess entry probabilities based on any resumption of ground maneuvers, buffer zone enforcement, or shifts in the fragile ceasefire.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Tyre in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Tyre will count.

Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$100,186
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Tyre in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Tyre will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "August 31" at 2%, followed by "May 31" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 2¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 2% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?" has generated $100.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?" is "August 31" at just 2%, with "May 31" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Israeli forces enter Tyre by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.