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icon for Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?
World·Israel

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?

icon for Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?
World·Israel

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?

4-6 42%

7-9 40%

<4 38%

10+ 8%

Polymarket
NEW

4-6 42%

7-9 40%

<4 38%

10+ 8%

Polymarket
NEW

<4

$0 Vol.

38%

4-6

$0 Vol.

42%

7-9

$0 Vol.

40%

10+

$72 Vol.

26%

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling volatility for the newly launched Amcha Yisrael party, founded by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter on August 25, keeps trader sentiment tightly clustered around the 3.25% electoral threshold. Surveys from late August through early September project the right-wing list, which features Arab-Israeli activist Yoseph Haddad and emphasizes a preemptive security doctrine plus expanded IDF service, at 4–6 seats in most readings, with some showing it below the line or reaching 5–8. The party draws support primarily from Religious Zionism, Likud, and Otzma Yehudit, fragmenting the broader right-wing bloc ahead of the October 27 vote and leaving outcomes sensitive to small shifts in turnout or late campaign momentum.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$72
End Date
Oct 27, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling volatility for the newly launched Amcha Yisrael party, founded by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter on August 25, keeps trader sentiment tightly clustered around the 3.25% electoral threshold. Surveys from late August through early September project the right-wing list, which features Arab-Israeli activist Yoseph Haddad and emphasizes a preemptive security doctrine plus expanded IDF service, at 4–6 seats in most readings, with some showing it below the line or reaching 5–8. The party draws support primarily from Religious Zionism, Likud, and Otzma Yehudit, fragmenting the broader right-wing bloc ahead of the October 27 vote and leaving outcomes sensitive to small shifts in turnout or late campaign momentum.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$72
End Date
Oct 27, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4-6" at 42%, followed by "7-9" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?" is "4-6" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "7-9" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.