Recent escalations in the US-Iran conflict, including the breakdown of a July 2026 ceasefire and renewed strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, have sustained elevated regional risks that previously prompted repeated Israeli airspace closures and reopenings earlier in the year. As of mid-August, authorities have maintained an open Tel Aviv FIR with commercial operations continuing, following security assessments that weighed threats from Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah and missiles from Yemen against operational needs. European regulators continue to flag potential disruptions without mandating avoidance, while many international carriers have yet to resume full service. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to near-term closure dates, reflecting the absence of imminent large-scale attacks or official shutdown orders in the resolution window, though volatility from ongoing military activity could shift conditions rapidly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$26,972,222 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
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$26,972,222 Vol.
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent escalations in the US-Iran conflict, including the breakdown of a July 2026 ceasefire and renewed strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, have sustained elevated regional risks that previously prompted repeated Israeli airspace closures and reopenings earlier in the year. As of mid-August, authorities have maintained an open Tel Aviv FIR with commercial operations continuing, following security assessments that weighed threats from Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah and missiles from Yemen against operational needs. European regulators continue to flag potential disruptions without mandating avoidance, while many international carriers have yet to resume full service. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to near-term closure dates, reflecting the absence of imminent large-scale attacks or official shutdown orders in the resolution window, though volatility from ongoing military activity could shift conditions rapidly.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$26,972,222End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent escalations in the US-Iran conflict, including the breakdown of a July 2026 ceasefire and renewed strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, have sustained elevated regional risks that previously prompted repeated Israeli airspace closures and reopenings earlier in the year. As of mid-August, authorities have maintained an open Tel Aviv FIR with commercial operations continuing, following security assessments that weighed threats from Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah and missiles from Yemen against operational needs. European regulators continue to flag potential disruptions without mandating avoidance, while many international carriers have yet to resume full service. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to near-term closure dates, reflecting the absence of imminent large-scale attacks or official shutdown orders in the resolution window, though volatility from ongoing military activity could shift conditions rapidly.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$26,972,222End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent escalations in the US-Iran conflict, including the breakdown of a July 2026 ceasefire and renewed strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, have sustained elevated regional risks that previously prompted repeated Israeli airspace closures and reopenings earlier in the year. As of mid-August, authorities have maintained an open Tel Aviv FIR with commercial operations continuing, following security assessments that weighed threats from Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah and missiles from Yemen against operational needs. European regulators continue to flag potential disruptions without mandating avoidance, while many international carriers have yet to resume full service. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to near-term closure dates, reflecting the absence of imminent large-scale attacks or official shutdown orders in the resolution window, though volatility from ongoing military activity could shift conditions rapidly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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