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icon for Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
Politics·Iran

Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

icon for Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
Politics·Iran

Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

$9,038,822 Vol.

Aug 15, 2026
Polymarket

$9,038,822 Vol.

Polymarket

August 15

$829,606 Vol.

1%

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations. Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations. Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.Iran and the United States signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding on June 17, 2026, establishing a 60-day window (extendable by consent) for talks on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, and related issues following the 2026 conflict. Negotiations opened in Switzerland with mediators but quickly encountered disputes over implementation, including reported violations involving Iranian nuclear activities, US sanctions measures, Lebanon-related operations, and maritime access. On July 18, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister publicly suspended Iran's MOU commitments, citing US breaches, while President Trump described the framework as effectively over. With the original period concluding around mid-August amid stalled progress and mutual recriminations, traders assign minimal probability to a formal Iranian withdrawal announcement by August 15, viewing ongoing tensions and suspended commitments as more likely to produce drift or quiet termination than an explicit exit.

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.

A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.

A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.

A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.

The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.

Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.

Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.
Volume
$9,038,822
End Date
Jul 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 1:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations. Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations. Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations. Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.Iran and the United States signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding on June 17, 2026, establishing a 60-day window (extendable by consent) for talks on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, and related issues following the 2026 conflict. Negotiations opened in Switzerland with mediators but quickly encountered disputes over implementation, including reported violations involving Iranian nuclear activities, US sanctions measures, Lebanon-related operations, and maritime access. On July 18, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister publicly suspended Iran's MOU commitments, citing US breaches, while President Trump described the framework as effectively over. With the original period concluding around mid-August amid stalled progress and mutual recriminations, traders assign minimal probability to a formal Iranian withdrawal announcement by August 15, viewing ongoing tensions and suspended commitments as more likely to produce drift or quiet termination than an explicit exit.

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination.

A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process.

A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated.

A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.

The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position;
- Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and
- Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran.

Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations.

Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.
Volume
$9,038,822
End Date
Jul 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 1:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations. Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "August 15" at 1%, followed by "June 26" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 1¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 1% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?" has generated $9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 22, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?" is "August 15" at just 1%, with "June 26" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.