**Democratic House retirements and departures for other offices have reached 23 as of mid-August 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bin.** Long-tenured members including Nancy Pelosi, Jan Schakowsky, and several others have announced they will not seek another term, driven by generational turnover, opportunities to run for Senate or governor seats, and the standard pattern of elevated departures in midterm cycles. Republicans have announced more total exits, but Democratic numbers have remained steady in recent weeks with limited new announcements. Trader consensus therefore clusters on the narrow range around the current tally, while higher bins price in only modest additional departures before filing deadlines close most remaining decisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated24–27 46%
20–23 40.8%
28–31 3.8%
<20 <1%
$41,239 Vol.
$41,239 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
<1%
20–23
43%
24–27
38%
28–31
4%
32–35
<1%
36–39
<1%
40+
<1%
24–27 46%
20–23 40.8%
28–31 3.8%
<20 <1%
$41,239 Vol.
$41,239 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$17,643 Vol.
<1%
20–23
$8,347 Vol.
43%
24–27
$6,395 Vol.
38%
28–31
$1,774 Vol.
4%
32–35
$4,376 Vol.
<1%
36–39
$1,198 Vol.
<1%
40+
$1,506 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Democratic House retirements and departures for other offices have reached 23 as of mid-August 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bin.** Long-tenured members including Nancy Pelosi, Jan Schakowsky, and several others have announced they will not seek another term, driven by generational turnover, opportunities to run for Senate or governor seats, and the standard pattern of elevated departures in midterm cycles. Republicans have announced more total exits, but Democratic numbers have remained steady in recent weeks with limited new announcements. Trader consensus therefore clusters on the narrow range around the current tally, while higher bins price in only modest additional departures before filing deadlines close most remaining decisions.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$41,239End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Democratic House retirements and departures for other offices have reached 23 as of mid-August 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bin.** Long-tenured members including Nancy Pelosi, Jan Schakowsky, and several others have announced they will not seek another term, driven by generational turnover, opportunities to run for Senate or governor seats, and the standard pattern of elevated departures in midterm cycles. Republicans have announced more total exits, but Democratic numbers have remained steady in recent weeks with limited new announcements. Trader consensus therefore clusters on the narrow range around the current tally, while higher bins price in only modest additional departures before filing deadlines close most remaining decisions.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$41,239End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic House retirements and departures for other offices have reached 23 as of mid-August 2026, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bin.** Long-tenured members including Nancy Pelosi, Jan Schakowsky, and several others have announced they will not seek another term, driven by generational turnover, opportunities to run for Senate or governor seats, and the standard pattern of elevated departures in midterm cycles. Republicans have announced more total exits, but Democratic numbers have remained steady in recent weeks with limited new announcements. Trader consensus therefore clusters on the narrow range around the current tally, while higher bins price in only modest additional departures before filing deadlines close most remaining decisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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