Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, establishing the current consensus at seven open seats. Key retirements include Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Tommy Tuberville of Alabama, Steve Daines of Montana, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, and Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma, with decisions spanning late 2025 into March 2026. These announcements reflect standard factors such as age, term limits pressures, interest in other offices like governorships, and primary dynamics within the party. No additional Republican retirements have occurred since March, and recent primary outcomes have not shifted the total, keeping trader focus on the established seven while monitoring any late-cycle developments before the November election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7 77%
11 4.1%
5 3.5%
9 2.3%
$100,909 Vol.
$100,909 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
77%
8
2%
9
2%
10
2%
11
4%
12+
1%
7 77%
11 4.1%
5 3.5%
9 2.3%
$100,909 Vol.
$100,909 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$22,724 Vol.
1%
5
$17,475 Vol.
3%
6
$27,237 Vol.
1%
7
$16,947 Vol.
77%
8
$4,592 Vol.
2%
9
$2,198 Vol.
2%
10
$1,829 Vol.
2%
11
$2,835 Vol.
4%
12+
$5,072 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, establishing the current consensus at seven open seats. Key retirements include Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Tommy Tuberville of Alabama, Steve Daines of Montana, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, and Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma, with decisions spanning late 2025 into March 2026. These announcements reflect standard factors such as age, term limits pressures, interest in other offices like governorships, and primary dynamics within the party. No additional Republican retirements have occurred since March, and recent primary outcomes have not shifted the total, keeping trader focus on the established seven while monitoring any late-cycle developments before the November election.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$100,909End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, establishing the current consensus at seven open seats. Key retirements include Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Tommy Tuberville of Alabama, Steve Daines of Montana, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, and Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma, with decisions spanning late 2025 into March 2026. These announcements reflect standard factors such as age, term limits pressures, interest in other offices like governorships, and primary dynamics within the party. No additional Republican retirements have occurred since March, and recent primary outcomes have not shifted the total, keeping trader focus on the established seven while monitoring any late-cycle developments before the November election.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$100,909End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, establishing the current consensus at seven open seats. Key retirements include Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Tommy Tuberville of Alabama, Steve Daines of Montana, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, and Alan Armstrong of Oklahoma, with decisions spanning late 2025 into March 2026. These announcements reflect standard factors such as age, term limits pressures, interest in other offices like governorships, and primary dynamics within the party. No additional Republican retirements have occurred since March, and recent primary outcomes have not shifted the total, keeping trader focus on the established seven while monitoring any late-cycle developments before the November election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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