Skip to main content
icon for FL-14 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-14 Republican Primary Winner

icon for FL-14 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-14 Republican Primary Winner

Kevin Steele 54%

Mike Beltran 42%

Ergin "Batman" Tek <1%

Michael Marcel <1%

Polymarket

$22,657 Vol.

Kevin Steele 54%

Mike Beltran 42%

Ergin "Batman" Tek <1%

Michael Marcel <1%

Polymarket

$22,657 Vol.

Kevin Steele

$5,139 Vol.

54%

Mike Beltran

$14,035 Vol.

42%

Ergin "Batman" Tek

$688 Vol.

<1%

Michael Marcel

$769 Vol.

<1%

John Peters

$592 Vol.

<1%

Robert "Rocky" Rochford

$574 Vol.

<1%

Gavriel Soriano

$335 Vol.

<1%

Bea Valenti

$525 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The Republican primary for Florida’s 14th Congressional District remains tightly contested days before the August 18 vote, with trader pricing reflecting a narrow establishment edge for state Representative Kevin Steele alongside competitive positioning for former Representative Mike Beltran. Recent internal polling shows the two candidates essentially tied in the low-to-mid 20s among likely primary voters, with no other entrant reaching double digits and the remainder of the eight-candidate field trading near zero. Steele benefits from unified support by Florida Republican leadership and his adjacent-district House tenure, while Beltran has gained traction through stronger conservative endorsements and appeals in the redrawn, GOP-leaning seat. The closeness stems from limited public polling, overlapping voter bases, and unresolved questions over residency and positioning that have kept probabilities compressed. A decisive late endorsement, stronger turnout operation, or surprise polling release could quickly widen the gap ahead of election day.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22,657
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The Republican primary for Florida’s 14th Congressional District remains tightly contested days before the August 18 vote, with trader pricing reflecting a narrow establishment edge for state Representative Kevin Steele alongside competitive positioning for former Representative Mike Beltran. Recent internal polling shows the two candidates essentially tied in the low-to-mid 20s among likely primary voters, with no other entrant reaching double digits and the remainder of the eight-candidate field trading near zero. Steele benefits from unified support by Florida Republican leadership and his adjacent-district House tenure, while Beltran has gained traction through stronger conservative endorsements and appeals in the redrawn, GOP-leaning seat. The closeness stems from limited public polling, overlapping voter bases, and unresolved questions over residency and positioning that have kept probabilities compressed. A decisive late endorsement, stronger turnout operation, or surprise polling release could quickly widen the gap ahead of election day.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22,657
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

icon for Will Ryan Elijah be the FL-07 Republican nominee?

Will Ryan Elijah be the FL-07 Republican nominee?

57%
icon for Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?

Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?

54%
icon for Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?

Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?

83%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-14 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kevin Steele" at 54%, followed by "Mike Beltran" at 42%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-14 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $22.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-14 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-14 Republican Primary Winner" is "Kevin Steele" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mike Beltran" at 42%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-14 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.