Randy Fine holds a commanding lead in the FL-06 Republican primary as the incumbent who won a 2025 special election to fill the seat vacated by Mike Waltz. His position reflects substantial fundraising dominance, with over $4 million raised compared to far smaller totals from challengers including Aaron Baker and Dan Bilzerian, along with established name recognition in a solidly Republican district. The primary vote on August 18 is imminent, leaving limited time for shifts in voter sentiment. While low turnout or late developments could theoretically narrow margins, the combination of institutional advantages and resource gaps makes a significant upset improbable absent unforeseen events before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-06 Republican Primary Winner
FL-06 Republican Primary Winner
Randy Fine 97.4%
Aaron Baker 1.7%
Dan Bilzerian 1.3%
Alexandra Van Cleef <1%
$226,700 Vol.
$226,700 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Randy Fine
97%
Aaron Baker
2%
Dan Bilzerian
1%
Alexandra Van Cleef
1%
Joshua Vasquez
<1%
Charles Gambaro
<1%
Ernest Audino
<1%
Randy Fine 97.4%
Aaron Baker 1.7%
Dan Bilzerian 1.3%
Alexandra Van Cleef <1%
$226,700 Vol.
$226,700 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Randy Fine
$32,424 Vol.
97%
Aaron Baker
$23,207 Vol.
2%
Dan Bilzerian
$78,455 Vol.
1%
Alexandra Van Cleef
$41,191 Vol.
1%
Joshua Vasquez
$13,607 Vol.
<1%
Charles Gambaro
$17,669 Vol.
<1%
Ernest Audino
$20,148 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Randy Fine holds a commanding lead in the FL-06 Republican primary as the incumbent who won a 2025 special election to fill the seat vacated by Mike Waltz. His position reflects substantial fundraising dominance, with over $4 million raised compared to far smaller totals from challengers including Aaron Baker and Dan Bilzerian, along with established name recognition in a solidly Republican district. The primary vote on August 18 is imminent, leaving limited time for shifts in voter sentiment. While low turnout or late developments could theoretically narrow margins, the combination of institutional advantages and resource gaps makes a significant upset improbable absent unforeseen events before ballots close.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 6:52 PM ET
Volume
$226,700End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 6:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Randy Fine holds a commanding lead in the FL-06 Republican primary as the incumbent who won a 2025 special election to fill the seat vacated by Mike Waltz. His position reflects substantial fundraising dominance, with over $4 million raised compared to far smaller totals from challengers including Aaron Baker and Dan Bilzerian, along with established name recognition in a solidly Republican district. The primary vote on August 18 is imminent, leaving limited time for shifts in voter sentiment. While low turnout or late developments could theoretically narrow margins, the combination of institutional advantages and resource gaps makes a significant upset improbable absent unforeseen events before ballots close.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$226,700End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 6:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Randy Fine holds a commanding lead in the FL-06 Republican primary as the incumbent who won a 2025 special election to fill the seat vacated by Mike Waltz. His position reflects substantial fundraising dominance, with over $4 million raised compared to far smaller totals from challengers including Aaron Baker and Dan Bilzerian, along with established name recognition in a solidly Republican district. The primary vote on August 18 is imminent, leaving limited time for shifts in voter sentiment. While low turnout or late developments could theoretically narrow margins, the combination of institutional advantages and resource gaps makes a significant upset improbable absent unforeseen events before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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