Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI and PCE readings near 3.4-3.5%, alongside a resilient labor market featuring 4.1-4.2% unemployment, underpins the 67.5% implied probability of no change and 26.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the December FOMC meeting. The July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% included three dissents favoring a hike, while updated dot-plot projections and analyst forecasts from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs point to one possible tightening by year-end rather than further easing. Markets are now pricing a gradual rise toward 4% by late 2026, with the September 15-16 meeting and its revised economic projections serving as the next key catalyst for shifts in trader sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 68%
25 bps increase 27%
25 bps decrease 6.7%
50+ bps decrease 1.3%
$149,113 Vol.
$149,113 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
68%
25 bps increase
27%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 68%
25 bps increase 27%
25 bps decrease 6.7%
50+ bps decrease 1.3%
$149,113 Vol.
$149,113 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$27,118 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$36,908 Vol.
7%
No change
$35,988 Vol.
68%
25 bps increase
$27,095 Vol.
27%
50+ bps increase
$22,004 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI and PCE readings near 3.4-3.5%, alongside a resilient labor market featuring 4.1-4.2% unemployment, underpins the 67.5% implied probability of no change and 26.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the December FOMC meeting. The July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% included three dissents favoring a hike, while updated dot-plot projections and analyst forecasts from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs point to one possible tightening by year-end rather than further easing. Markets are now pricing a gradual rise toward 4% by late 2026, with the September 15-16 meeting and its revised economic projections serving as the next key catalyst for shifts in trader sentiment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$149,113End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI and PCE readings near 3.4-3.5%, alongside a resilient labor market featuring 4.1-4.2% unemployment, underpins the 67.5% implied probability of no change and 26.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the December FOMC meeting. The July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% included three dissents favoring a hike, while updated dot-plot projections and analyst forecasts from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs point to one possible tightening by year-end rather than further easing. Markets are now pricing a gradual rise toward 4% by late 2026, with the September 15-16 meeting and its revised economic projections serving as the next key catalyst for shifts in trader sentiment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$149,113End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI and PCE readings near 3.4-3.5%, alongside a resilient labor market featuring 4.1-4.2% unemployment, underpins the 67.5% implied probability of no change and 26.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the December FOMC meeting. The July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% included three dissents favoring a hike, while updated dot-plot projections and analyst forecasts from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs point to one possible tightening by year-end rather than further easing. Markets are now pricing a gradual rise toward 4% by late 2026, with the September 15-16 meeting and its revised economic projections serving as the next key catalyst for shifts in trader sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions