Trump’s established trust in Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, confirmed in May 2026 and supported by repeated private communications, underpins the 94.1% market-implied probability that no firing attempt occurs. Warsh’s alignment on inflation priorities and productivity-driven rate paths, coupled with Trump’s public emphasis on Fed independence during the swearing-in, has stabilized the relationship through mid-August amid steady policy execution. This consensus reflects trader assessment of skin-in-the-game positioning rather than certainty. A sharp policy rift—such as an unexpected rate hike amid elevated inflation data or perceived challenges to administration goals—could still introduce volatility if it erodes the current rapport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s established trust in Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, confirmed in May 2026 and supported by repeated private communications, underpins the 94.1% market-implied probability that no firing attempt occurs. Warsh’s alignment on inflation priorities and productivity-driven rate paths, coupled with Trump’s public emphasis on Fed independence during the swearing-in, has stabilized the relationship through mid-August amid steady policy execution. This consensus reflects trader assessment of skin-in-the-game positioning rather than certainty. A sharp policy rift—such as an unexpected rate hike amid elevated inflation data or perceived challenges to administration goals—could still introduce volatility if it erodes the current rapport.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$5,801End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s established trust in Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, confirmed in May 2026 and supported by repeated private communications, underpins the 94.1% market-implied probability that no firing attempt occurs. Warsh’s alignment on inflation priorities and productivity-driven rate paths, coupled with Trump’s public emphasis on Fed independence during the swearing-in, has stabilized the relationship through mid-August amid steady policy execution. This consensus reflects trader assessment of skin-in-the-game positioning rather than certainty. A sharp policy rift—such as an unexpected rate hike amid elevated inflation data or perceived challenges to administration goals—could still introduce volatility if it erodes the current rapport.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,801End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump’s established trust in Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, confirmed in May 2026 and supported by repeated private communications, underpins the 94.1% market-implied probability that no firing attempt occurs. Warsh’s alignment on inflation priorities and productivity-driven rate paths, coupled with Trump’s public emphasis on Fed independence during the swearing-in, has stabilized the relationship through mid-August amid steady policy execution. This consensus reflects trader assessment of skin-in-the-game positioning rather than certainty. A sharp policy rift—such as an unexpected rate hike amid elevated inflation data or perceived challenges to administration goals—could still introduce volatility if it erodes the current rapport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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