Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current presidential term runs through 2028 under Turkey’s constitution, with the next scheduled elections in May of that year and no snap vote or removal process active before December 2026. Recent health speculation and internal AKP succession maneuvering have prompted debate over long-term transition but produced no confirmed incapacity or resignation signals that would trigger an early exit. Opposition parties remain weakened by legal setbacks, limiting pressure for snap elections or parliamentary action. Traders price the high likelihood of continuity through year-end 2026 on the absence of imminent constitutional, electoral, or crisis-driven mechanisms capable of removing the incumbent within the narrow remaining window.