China’s Q2 2026 GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year from 5.0% in Q1, missing consensus and marking the weakest pace in over three years amid soft consumption, property-sector drag, and elevated energy costs from the Iran conflict. July manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.2 while the non-manufacturing gauge also fell below 50, underscoring persistent weakness in domestic demand and new orders. The late-July Politburo meeting signaled incremental fiscal acceleration on budgeted projects rather than broad stimulus, leaving market-implied odds closely split between the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bins. Traders are weighing resilient exports against limited policy offsets and potential further deceleration in Q3 data releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.3-4.6% 46%
4.6-4.9% 40%
4.0-4.3% 5.5%
4.9-5.2% 2.3%
$24,727 Vol.
$24,727 Vol.
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
6%
4.3-4.6%
46%
4.6-4.9%
40%
4.9-5.2%
2%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
1%
4.3-4.6% 46%
4.6-4.9% 40%
4.0-4.3% 5.5%
4.9-5.2% 2.3%
$24,727 Vol.
$24,727 Vol.
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
$952 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$666 Vol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$709 Vol.
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$1,573 Vol.
6%
4.3-4.6%
$8,194 Vol.
46%
4.6-4.9%
$7,947 Vol.
40%
4.9-5.2%
$2,786 Vol.
2%
5.2-5.5%
$879 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,020 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year from 5.0% in Q1, missing consensus and marking the weakest pace in over three years amid soft consumption, property-sector drag, and elevated energy costs from the Iran conflict. July manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.2 while the non-manufacturing gauge also fell below 50, underscoring persistent weakness in domestic demand and new orders. The late-July Politburo meeting signaled incremental fiscal acceleration on budgeted projects rather than broad stimulus, leaving market-implied odds closely split between the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bins. Traders are weighing resilient exports against limited policy offsets and potential further deceleration in Q3 data releases.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$24,727End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year from 5.0% in Q1, missing consensus and marking the weakest pace in over three years amid soft consumption, property-sector drag, and elevated energy costs from the Iran conflict. July manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.2 while the non-manufacturing gauge also fell below 50, underscoring persistent weakness in domestic demand and new orders. The late-July Politburo meeting signaled incremental fiscal acceleration on budgeted projects rather than broad stimulus, leaving market-implied odds closely split between the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bins. Traders are weighing resilient exports against limited policy offsets and potential further deceleration in Q3 data releases.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$24,727End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...China’s Q2 2026 GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year from 5.0% in Q1, missing consensus and marking the weakest pace in over three years amid soft consumption, property-sector drag, and elevated energy costs from the Iran conflict. July manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.2 while the non-manufacturing gauge also fell below 50, underscoring persistent weakness in domestic demand and new orders. The late-July Politburo meeting signaled incremental fiscal acceleration on budgeted projects rather than broad stimulus, leaving market-implied odds closely split between the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bins. Traders are weighing resilient exports against limited policy offsets and potential further deceleration in Q3 data releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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