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California Rainy Day Fund Proposition

icon for California Rainy Day Fund Proposition

California Rainy Day Fund Proposition

64% chance
Polymarket
NEW
64% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Proposition 2 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to deposit up to 20% of its general fund tax revenue into its rainy day fund each year, instead of the current 10%. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California's Proposition 2, a legislatively referred constitutional amendment on the November 2026 ballot, would raise the cap on the state's Budget Stabilization Account rainy day fund from 10% to 20% of General Fund revenues while adjusting Gann Limit interactions and expanding debt repayment options. The measure advanced in late June 2026 after Governor Gavin Newsom and Democratic legislative leaders announced the Save for California's Future Act, which passed both chambers with bipartisan procedural support. Analysts note its alignment with prior nonpartisan recommendations to build larger reserves against economic volatility and safeguard school funding and core services. Trader consensus at 68.9% for approval reflects the measure's official backing, limited organized opposition to date, and historical voter patterns favoring fiscal stabilization proposals, though outcome remains subject to campaign developments and turnout.

Proposition 2 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to deposit up to 20% of its general fund tax revenue into its rainy day fund each year, instead of the current 10%.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$834
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Proposition 2 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to deposit up to 20% of its general fund tax revenue into its rainy day fund each year, instead of the current 10%. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 2 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to deposit up to 20% of its general fund tax revenue into its rainy day fund each year, instead of the current 10%. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California's Proposition 2, a legislatively referred constitutional amendment on the November 2026 ballot, would raise the cap on the state's Budget Stabilization Account rainy day fund from 10% to 20% of General Fund revenues while adjusting Gann Limit interactions and expanding debt repayment options. The measure advanced in late June 2026 after Governor Gavin Newsom and Democratic legislative leaders announced the Save for California's Future Act, which passed both chambers with bipartisan procedural support. Analysts note its alignment with prior nonpartisan recommendations to build larger reserves against economic volatility and safeguard school funding and core services. Trader consensus at 68.9% for approval reflects the measure's official backing, limited organized opposition to date, and historical voter patterns favoring fiscal stabilization proposals, though outcome remains subject to campaign developments and turnout.

Proposition 2 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to deposit up to 20% of its general fund tax revenue into its rainy day fund each year, instead of the current 10%.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$834
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Proposition 2 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to deposit up to 20% of its general fund tax revenue into its rainy day fund each year, instead of the current 10%. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"California Rainy Day Fund Proposition" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 69% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 69¢, the market collectively assigns a 69% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"California Rainy Day Fund Proposition" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "California Rainy Day Fund Proposition," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "California Rainy Day Fund Proposition" is 69% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 69% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "California Rainy Day Fund Proposition" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.