Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal faces Republican Bob Smith in California's 24th congressional district general election on November 3, 2026, after advancing from the June top-two primary. The district's D+13 partisan lean, combined with Carbajal's established incumbency and primary performance, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic victory, yet even pricing on the leading candidates and margin buckets reflects uncertainty over the exact victory margin amid national midterm dynamics and turnout variables. Limited recent catalysts since the primary have kept probabilities balanced, with potential separation hinging on fall campaign spending, voter mobilization in coastal and Central Coast counties, or shifts in broader economic or policy sentiment. Historical patterns in similar safe-leaning seats suggest margins often stabilize closer to election day as ballot access and early voting data emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemocrat 45%+ 40%
Democrat 40-45% 40%
Democrat 35-40% 40%
Democrat 30-35% 40%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 45%+
40%
Democrat 40-45%
40%
Democrat 35-40%
40%
Democrat 30-35%
40%
Democrat 25-30%
40%
Democrat 20-25%
40%
Democrat 15-20%
40%
Democrat 5-15%
40%
Democrat 0-5%
38%
Republican Wins
40%
Democrat 45%+ 40%
Democrat 40-45% 40%
Democrat 35-40% 40%
Democrat 30-35% 40%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 45%+
$0 Vol.
40%
Democrat 40-45%
$0 Vol.
40%
Democrat 35-40%
$0 Vol.
40%
Democrat 30-35%
$0 Vol.
40%
Democrat 25-30%
$0 Vol.
40%
Democrat 20-25%
$0 Vol.
40%
Democrat 15-20%
$0 Vol.
40%
Democrat 5-15%
$0 Vol.
40%
Democrat 0-5%
$0 Vol.
38%
Republican Wins
$0 Vol.
40%
The 2026 CA-24 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal faces Republican Bob Smith in California's 24th congressional district general election on November 3, 2026, after advancing from the June top-two primary. The district's D+13 partisan lean, combined with Carbajal's established incumbency and primary performance, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic victory, yet even pricing on the leading candidates and margin buckets reflects uncertainty over the exact victory margin amid national midterm dynamics and turnout variables. Limited recent catalysts since the primary have kept probabilities balanced, with potential separation hinging on fall campaign spending, voter mobilization in coastal and Central Coast counties, or shifts in broader economic or policy sentiment. Historical patterns in similar safe-leaning seats suggest margins often stabilize closer to election day as ballot access and early voting data emerge.
The 2026 CA-24 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-24 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal faces Republican Bob Smith in California's 24th congressional district general election on November 3, 2026, after advancing from the June top-two primary. The district's D+13 partisan lean, combined with Carbajal's established incumbency and primary performance, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic victory, yet even pricing on the leading candidates and margin buckets reflects uncertainty over the exact victory margin amid national midterm dynamics and turnout variables. Limited recent catalysts since the primary have kept probabilities balanced, with potential separation hinging on fall campaign spending, voter mobilization in coastal and Central Coast counties, or shifts in broader economic or policy sentiment. Historical patterns in similar safe-leaning seats suggest margins often stabilize closer to election day as ballot access and early voting data emerge.
The 2026 CA-24 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal faces Republican Bob Smith in California's 24th congressional district general election on November 3, 2026, after advancing from the June top-two primary. The district's D+13 partisan lean, combined with Carbajal's established incumbency and primary performance, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic victory, yet even pricing on the leading candidates and margin buckets reflects uncertainty over the exact victory margin amid national midterm dynamics and turnout variables. Limited recent catalysts since the primary have kept probabilities balanced, with potential separation hinging on fall campaign spending, voter mobilization in coastal and Central Coast counties, or shifts in broader economic or policy sentiment. Historical patterns in similar safe-leaning seats suggest margins often stabilize closer to election day as ballot access and early voting data emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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