The retirement of longtime Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen has created an open-seat contest for the November 2026 election, with primaries scheduled for September 8. Representative Chris Pappas leads the Democratic field by wide margins in recent primary polling, positioning him as the likely nominee against Republican frontrunner John Sununu in the general election. Multiple June and July surveys show Pappas ahead of Sununu by single to low double digits, consistent with New Hampshire's modest Democratic lean in recent presidential and Senate voting. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Likely Democratic. Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to the Democratic outcome, reflecting the combination of candidate positioning, polling trends, and the state's baseline partisan tilt while leaving room for shifts depending on primary results and fall campaign dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$43,705 Vol.
$43,705 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
86%
Republican
14%
$43,705 Vol.
$43,705 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$27,846 Vol.
86%
Republican
$15,859 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The retirement of longtime Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen has created an open-seat contest for the November 2026 election, with primaries scheduled for September 8. Representative Chris Pappas leads the Democratic field by wide margins in recent primary polling, positioning him as the likely nominee against Republican frontrunner John Sununu in the general election. Multiple June and July surveys show Pappas ahead of Sununu by single to low double digits, consistent with New Hampshire's modest Democratic lean in recent presidential and Senate voting. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Likely Democratic. Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to the Democratic outcome, reflecting the combination of candidate positioning, polling trends, and the state's baseline partisan tilt while leaving room for shifts depending on primary results and fall campaign dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$43,705End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The retirement of longtime Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen has created an open-seat contest for the November 2026 election, with primaries scheduled for September 8. Representative Chris Pappas leads the Democratic field by wide margins in recent primary polling, positioning him as the likely nominee against Republican frontrunner John Sununu in the general election. Multiple June and July surveys show Pappas ahead of Sununu by single to low double digits, consistent with New Hampshire's modest Democratic lean in recent presidential and Senate voting. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Likely Democratic. Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to the Democratic outcome, reflecting the combination of candidate positioning, polling trends, and the state's baseline partisan tilt while leaving room for shifts depending on primary results and fall campaign dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$43,705End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The retirement of longtime Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen has created an open-seat contest for the November 2026 election, with primaries scheduled for September 8. Representative Chris Pappas leads the Democratic field by wide margins in recent primary polling, positioning him as the likely nominee against Republican frontrunner John Sununu in the general election. Multiple June and July surveys show Pappas ahead of Sununu by single to low double digits, consistent with New Hampshire's modest Democratic lean in recent presidential and Senate voting. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Likely Democratic. Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to the Democratic outcome, reflecting the combination of candidate positioning, polling trends, and the state's baseline partisan tilt while leaving room for shifts depending on primary results and fall campaign dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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