**Hilda Solis (D) and Pedro Casas (R) advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 38th congressional district on November 3, 2026, an open seat following redistricting with a Cook PVI of D+8 to D+10.** Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's suburban Los Angeles and Orange County footprint and Democratic registration edge. Trader prices remain balanced across win probabilities and margin buckets because limited general-election polling exists, Solis's strong name recognition and fundraising contrast with Casas's primary performance, and the exact margin hinges on turnout among Democratic-leaning voters versus Republican consolidation in Orange County portions. Recent primary vote splits among Democrats and the absence of major late-breaking developments have kept implied probabilities clustered near even, with any shift likely tied to upcoming October polling, endorsements, or national midterm dynamics that could widen Solis's projected lead or compress it toward single digits.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-38 House Election Margin of Victory
CA-38 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 30%+ 41%
Democrat 25-30% 41%
Democrat 20-25% 41%
Democrat 15-20% 41%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 30%+
41%
Democrat 25-30%
41%
Democrat 20-25%
41%
Democrat 15-20%
41%
Democrat 10-15%
41%
Democrat 5-10%
41%
Democrat 0-5%
41%
Republican Wins
41%
Democrat 30%+ 41%
Democrat 25-30% 41%
Democrat 20-25% 41%
Democrat 15-20% 41%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 30%+
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrat 25-30%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrat 20-25%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrat 15-20%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrat 10-15%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrat 5-10%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrat 0-5%
$0 Vol.
41%
Republican Wins
$0 Vol.
41%
The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Hilda Solis (D) and Pedro Casas (R) advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 38th congressional district on November 3, 2026, an open seat following redistricting with a Cook PVI of D+8 to D+10.** Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's suburban Los Angeles and Orange County footprint and Democratic registration edge. Trader prices remain balanced across win probabilities and margin buckets because limited general-election polling exists, Solis's strong name recognition and fundraising contrast with Casas's primary performance, and the exact margin hinges on turnout among Democratic-leaning voters versus Republican consolidation in Orange County portions. Recent primary vote splits among Democrats and the absence of major late-breaking developments have kept implied probabilities clustered near even, with any shift likely tied to upcoming October polling, endorsements, or national midterm dynamics that could widen Solis's projected lead or compress it toward single digits.
The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Hilda Solis (D) and Pedro Casas (R) advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 38th congressional district on November 3, 2026, an open seat following redistricting with a Cook PVI of D+8 to D+10.** Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's suburban Los Angeles and Orange County footprint and Democratic registration edge. Trader prices remain balanced across win probabilities and margin buckets because limited general-election polling exists, Solis's strong name recognition and fundraising contrast with Casas's primary performance, and the exact margin hinges on turnout among Democratic-leaning voters versus Republican consolidation in Orange County portions. Recent primary vote splits among Democrats and the absence of major late-breaking developments have kept implied probabilities clustered near even, with any shift likely tied to upcoming October polling, endorsements, or national midterm dynamics that could widen Solis's projected lead or compress it toward single digits.
The 2026 CA-38 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-38 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Hilda Solis (D) and Pedro Casas (R) advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 38th congressional district on November 3, 2026, an open seat following redistricting with a Cook PVI of D+8 to D+10.** Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's suburban Los Angeles and Orange County footprint and Democratic registration edge. Trader prices remain balanced across win probabilities and margin buckets because limited general-election polling exists, Solis's strong name recognition and fundraising contrast with Casas's primary performance, and the exact margin hinges on turnout among Democratic-leaning voters versus Republican consolidation in Orange County portions. Recent primary vote splits among Democrats and the absence of major late-breaking developments have kept implied probabilities clustered near even, with any shift likely tied to upcoming October polling, endorsements, or national midterm dynamics that could widen Solis's projected lead or compress it toward single digits.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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