California's 6th congressional district carries a strong Democratic partisan lean following redistricting under Proposition 50, with voter registration favoring Democrats and a Cook Partisan Voting Index placing it in safe or solid Democratic territory. Incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched from Republican to independent in March 2026 while continuing to caucus with House Republicans, advanced alongside Democrat Richard Pan from the June primary to the November general election. Forecasters rate the race as likely or solid Democratic, reflecting the district's underlying composition and limited crossover appeal for an independent in this Sacramento-area seat. Trader consensus at 94% for a Democratic outcome aligns with these structural factors. Late developments such as national midterm swings, unusual turnout patterns, or candidate-specific controversies could still narrow the margin, though the baseline favors the Democratic nominee.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
$42,176 Vol.
$42,176 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
4%
$42,176 Vol.
$42,176 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$18,223 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$23,953 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 6th congressional district carries a strong Democratic partisan lean following redistricting under Proposition 50, with voter registration favoring Democrats and a Cook Partisan Voting Index placing it in safe or solid Democratic territory. Incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched from Republican to independent in March 2026 while continuing to caucus with House Republicans, advanced alongside Democrat Richard Pan from the June primary to the November general election. Forecasters rate the race as likely or solid Democratic, reflecting the district's underlying composition and limited crossover appeal for an independent in this Sacramento-area seat. Trader consensus at 94% for a Democratic outcome aligns with these structural factors. Late developments such as national midterm swings, unusual turnout patterns, or candidate-specific controversies could still narrow the margin, though the baseline favors the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$42,176End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 6th congressional district carries a strong Democratic partisan lean following redistricting under Proposition 50, with voter registration favoring Democrats and a Cook Partisan Voting Index placing it in safe or solid Democratic territory. Incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched from Republican to independent in March 2026 while continuing to caucus with House Republicans, advanced alongside Democrat Richard Pan from the June primary to the November general election. Forecasters rate the race as likely or solid Democratic, reflecting the district's underlying composition and limited crossover appeal for an independent in this Sacramento-area seat. Trader consensus at 94% for a Democratic outcome aligns with these structural factors. Late developments such as national midterm swings, unusual turnout patterns, or candidate-specific controversies could still narrow the margin, though the baseline favors the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,176End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 6th congressional district carries a strong Democratic partisan lean following redistricting under Proposition 50, with voter registration favoring Democrats and a Cook Partisan Voting Index placing it in safe or solid Democratic territory. Incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched from Republican to independent in March 2026 while continuing to caucus with House Republicans, advanced alongside Democrat Richard Pan from the June primary to the November general election. Forecasters rate the race as likely or solid Democratic, reflecting the district's underlying composition and limited crossover appeal for an independent in this Sacramento-area seat. Trader consensus at 94% for a Democratic outcome aligns with these structural factors. Late developments such as national midterm swings, unusual turnout patterns, or candidate-specific controversies could still narrow the margin, though the baseline favors the Democratic nominee.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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