Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth market assigns the highest implied probability (52.9%) to the 0.3%–0.5% QoQ range, reflecting trader expectations of a sharp moderation from the 1.1% Q1 expansion that exceeded consensus. This positioning stems from fading momentum in household consumption and fixed investment, alongside inflation pressures—potentially amplified by external energy shocks—that have eroded real incomes and prompted a pullback in capital spending. Elevated policy rates have also constrained domestic demand, consistent with Trading Economics' 0.3% forecast and broader 2026 growth projections near 1.5–1.7%. The September 1 IBGE release remains the key catalyst, with any stronger services or export data potentially shifting odds toward the 0.6%–0.8% bin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.3%–0.5% 53.0%
0.0%–0.2% 22.4%
0.6%–0.8% 15.9%
0.9%–1.1% 7.0%
$45,091 Vol.
$45,091 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
<1%
0.0%–0.2%
22%
0.3%–0.5%
53%
0.6%–0.8%
16%
0.9%–1.1%
7%
1.2%–1.4%
<1%
≥1.5%
<1%
0.3%–0.5% 53.0%
0.0%–0.2% 22.4%
0.6%–0.8% 15.9%
0.9%–1.1% 7.0%
$45,091 Vol.
$45,091 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
$832 Vol.
<1%
0.0%–0.2%
$3,404 Vol.
22%
0.3%–0.5%
$16,460 Vol.
53%
0.6%–0.8%
$14,723 Vol.
16%
0.9%–1.1%
$6,062 Vol.
7%
1.2%–1.4%
$2,775 Vol.
<1%
≥1.5%
$836 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth market assigns the highest implied probability (52.9%) to the 0.3%–0.5% QoQ range, reflecting trader expectations of a sharp moderation from the 1.1% Q1 expansion that exceeded consensus. This positioning stems from fading momentum in household consumption and fixed investment, alongside inflation pressures—potentially amplified by external energy shocks—that have eroded real incomes and prompted a pullback in capital spending. Elevated policy rates have also constrained domestic demand, consistent with Trading Economics' 0.3% forecast and broader 2026 growth projections near 1.5–1.7%. The September 1 IBGE release remains the key catalyst, with any stronger services or export data potentially shifting odds toward the 0.6%–0.8% bin.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$45,091End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth market assigns the highest implied probability (52.9%) to the 0.3%–0.5% QoQ range, reflecting trader expectations of a sharp moderation from the 1.1% Q1 expansion that exceeded consensus. This positioning stems from fading momentum in household consumption and fixed investment, alongside inflation pressures—potentially amplified by external energy shocks—that have eroded real incomes and prompted a pullback in capital spending. Elevated policy rates have also constrained domestic demand, consistent with Trading Economics' 0.3% forecast and broader 2026 growth projections near 1.5–1.7%. The September 1 IBGE release remains the key catalyst, with any stronger services or export data potentially shifting odds toward the 0.6%–0.8% bin.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$45,091End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth market assigns the highest implied probability (52.9%) to the 0.3%–0.5% QoQ range, reflecting trader expectations of a sharp moderation from the 1.1% Q1 expansion that exceeded consensus. This positioning stems from fading momentum in household consumption and fixed investment, alongside inflation pressures—potentially amplified by external energy shocks—that have eroded real incomes and prompted a pullback in capital spending. Elevated policy rates have also constrained domestic demand, consistent with Trading Economics' 0.3% forecast and broader 2026 growth projections near 1.5–1.7%. The September 1 IBGE release remains the key catalyst, with any stronger services or export data potentially shifting odds toward the 0.6%–0.8% bin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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