Market-implied odds for Brazil’s Q2 2026 GDP QoQ growth heavily favor the 0.3%–0.5% range following the strong 1.1% print in Q1. Traders are pricing in moderation driven by elevated inflation pressures—including effects from recent energy shocks—that have eroded real household income, alongside a likely pullback in fixed investment after its unsustainably rapid Q1 surge. The central bank’s maintenance of high policy rates continues to weigh on domestic demand, while net exports offer limited offset despite expected soybean shipment gains. With the IBGE release scheduled for September 1, these factors have aligned trader consensus around a return toward the long-term average quarterly pace near 0.3%, consistent with downward revisions to full-year 2026 growth forecasts to 1.6%–1.9%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.3%–0.5% 53.0%
0.0%–0.2% 22.4%
0.6%–0.8% 16.2%
0.9%–1.1% 6.9%
$45,091 Vol.
$45,091 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
<1%
0.0%–0.2%
22%
0.3%–0.5%
53%
0.6%–0.8%
16%
0.9%–1.1%
7%
1.2%–1.4%
<1%
≥1.5%
<1%
0.3%–0.5% 53.0%
0.0%–0.2% 22.4%
0.6%–0.8% 16.2%
0.9%–1.1% 6.9%
$45,091 Vol.
$45,091 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
$832 Vol.
<1%
0.0%–0.2%
$3,404 Vol.
22%
0.3%–0.5%
$16,459 Vol.
53%
0.6%–0.8%
$14,723 Vol.
16%
0.9%–1.1%
$6,062 Vol.
7%
1.2%–1.4%
$2,775 Vol.
<1%
≥1.5%
$836 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlMarket-implied odds for Brazil’s Q2 2026 GDP QoQ growth heavily favor the 0.3%–0.5% range following the strong 1.1% print in Q1. Traders are pricing in moderation driven by elevated inflation pressures—including effects from recent energy shocks—that have eroded real household income, alongside a likely pullback in fixed investment after its unsustainably rapid Q1 surge. The central bank’s maintenance of high policy rates continues to weigh on domestic demand, while net exports offer limited offset despite expected soybean shipment gains. With the IBGE release scheduled for September 1, these factors have aligned trader consensus around a return toward the long-term average quarterly pace near 0.3%, consistent with downward revisions to full-year 2026 growth forecasts to 1.6%–1.9%.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$45,091End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlMarket-implied odds for Brazil’s Q2 2026 GDP QoQ growth heavily favor the 0.3%–0.5% range following the strong 1.1% print in Q1. Traders are pricing in moderation driven by elevated inflation pressures—including effects from recent energy shocks—that have eroded real household income, alongside a likely pullback in fixed investment after its unsustainably rapid Q1 surge. The central bank’s maintenance of high policy rates continues to weigh on domestic demand, while net exports offer limited offset despite expected soybean shipment gains. With the IBGE release scheduled for September 1, these factors have aligned trader consensus around a return toward the long-term average quarterly pace near 0.3%, consistent with downward revisions to full-year 2026 growth forecasts to 1.6%–1.9%.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$45,091End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds for Brazil’s Q2 2026 GDP QoQ growth heavily favor the 0.3%–0.5% range following the strong 1.1% print in Q1. Traders are pricing in moderation driven by elevated inflation pressures—including effects from recent energy shocks—that have eroded real household income, alongside a likely pullback in fixed investment after its unsustainably rapid Q1 surge. The central bank’s maintenance of high policy rates continues to weigh on domestic demand, while net exports offer limited offset despite expected soybean shipment gains. With the IBGE release scheduled for September 1, these factors have aligned trader consensus around a return toward the long-term average quarterly pace near 0.3%, consistent with downward revisions to full-year 2026 growth forecasts to 1.6%–1.9%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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