The 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race remains a near-dead heat between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil), a 2022 rematch, because recent state polls from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and others show first-round intentions within the margin of error or alternating narrow leads. Rodrigues benefits from steady approval ratings in the mid-to-high 50s, particularly on education and infrastructure, plus PT organizational strength in a state with strong lulista roots. Neto counters with consolidated opposition support after União’s 2025 national break with the federal government and appeals on security and broader right-leaning alignment. A recent debate highlighted shared priorities on health, education, and public safety without decisive shifts. Further polling releases, candidate alliances ahead of October 4 voting, or late national political developments could widen the gap by clarifying turnout or second-round dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJerônimo Rodrigues 50%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$107,708 Vol.
$107,708 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
50%
ACM Neto
48%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 50%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$107,708 Vol.
$107,708 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$34,629 Vol.
50%
ACM Neto
$35,900 Vol.
48%
Kleber Rosa
$11,407 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$9,514 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race remains a near-dead heat between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil), a 2022 rematch, because recent state polls from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and others show first-round intentions within the margin of error or alternating narrow leads. Rodrigues benefits from steady approval ratings in the mid-to-high 50s, particularly on education and infrastructure, plus PT organizational strength in a state with strong lulista roots. Neto counters with consolidated opposition support after União’s 2025 national break with the federal government and appeals on security and broader right-leaning alignment. A recent debate highlighted shared priorities on health, education, and public safety without decisive shifts. Further polling releases, candidate alliances ahead of October 4 voting, or late national political developments could widen the gap by clarifying turnout or second-round dynamics.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$107,708End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race remains a near-dead heat between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil), a 2022 rematch, because recent state polls from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and others show first-round intentions within the margin of error or alternating narrow leads. Rodrigues benefits from steady approval ratings in the mid-to-high 50s, particularly on education and infrastructure, plus PT organizational strength in a state with strong lulista roots. Neto counters with consolidated opposition support after União’s 2025 national break with the federal government and appeals on security and broader right-leaning alignment. A recent debate highlighted shared priorities on health, education, and public safety without decisive shifts. Further polling releases, candidate alliances ahead of October 4 voting, or late national political developments could widen the gap by clarifying turnout or second-round dynamics.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$107,708End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Bahia gubernatorial race remains a near-dead heat between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil), a 2022 rematch, because recent state polls from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and others show first-round intentions within the margin of error or alternating narrow leads. Rodrigues benefits from steady approval ratings in the mid-to-high 50s, particularly on education and infrastructure, plus PT organizational strength in a state with strong lulista roots. Neto counters with consolidated opposition support after União’s 2025 national break with the federal government and appeals on security and broader right-leaning alignment. A recent debate highlighted shared priorities on health, education, and public safety without decisive shifts. Further polling releases, candidate alliances ahead of October 4 voting, or late national political developments could widen the gap by clarifying turnout or second-round dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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