President Trump’s renewed August 2026 effort to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook over 2021 mortgage-fraud allegations is the dominant catalyst shaping trader views on her tenure. A White House letter dated August 5 gave Cook until roughly August 26 to respond, following the Supreme Court’s June 29 ruling that preserved her position pending due process after an earlier dismissal attempt. Markets are pricing the low near-term probability of departure because any final removal would likely trigger extended litigation centered on Federal Reserve independence, with Cook’s term extending to 2038. Key upcoming developments include her formal response, potential further court filings, and any signals from FOMC communications on leadership continuity, all of which could influence bond yields and rate-path expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
2%
October 31
3%
November 30
5%
December 31
7%
$4,557 Vol.
September 30
$1,231 Vol.
2%
October 31
$1,226 Vol.
3%
November 30
$939 Vol.
5%
December 31
$1,161 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.President Trump’s renewed August 2026 effort to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook over 2021 mortgage-fraud allegations is the dominant catalyst shaping trader views on her tenure. A White House letter dated August 5 gave Cook until roughly August 26 to respond, following the Supreme Court’s June 29 ruling that preserved her position pending due process after an earlier dismissal attempt. Markets are pricing the low near-term probability of departure because any final removal would likely trigger extended litigation centered on Federal Reserve independence, with Cook’s term extending to 2038. Key upcoming developments include her formal response, potential further court filings, and any signals from FOMC communications on leadership continuity, all of which could influence bond yields and rate-path expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$4,557End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.President Trump’s renewed August 2026 effort to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook over 2021 mortgage-fraud allegations is the dominant catalyst shaping trader views on her tenure. A White House letter dated August 5 gave Cook until roughly August 26 to respond, following the Supreme Court’s June 29 ruling that preserved her position pending due process after an earlier dismissal attempt. Markets are pricing the low near-term probability of departure because any final removal would likely trigger extended litigation centered on Federal Reserve independence, with Cook’s term extending to 2038. Key upcoming developments include her formal response, potential further court filings, and any signals from FOMC communications on leadership continuity, all of which could influence bond yields and rate-path expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$4,557End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s renewed August 2026 effort to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook over 2021 mortgage-fraud allegations is the dominant catalyst shaping trader views on her tenure. A White House letter dated August 5 gave Cook until roughly August 26 to respond, following the Supreme Court’s June 29 ruling that preserved her position pending due process after an earlier dismissal attempt. Markets are pricing the low near-term probability of departure because any final removal would likely trigger extended litigation centered on Federal Reserve independence, with Cook’s term extending to 2038. Key upcoming developments include her formal response, potential further court filings, and any signals from FOMC communications on leadership continuity, all of which could influence bond yields and rate-path expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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