Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus in the Trump endorsement market due to his established family ties to the former Brazilian president, recent Oval Office meetings with the US president, and signals of alignment with Trump administration priorities on trade, security designations, and regional right-wing cooperation. Jair Bolsonaro’s explicit endorsement of his son as the Liberal Party standard-bearer has further consolidated this positioning ahead of the October 2026 vote, while Lula da Silva’s public warnings against foreign interference have highlighted but not derailed the perceived connection. Other candidates remain at lower implied probabilities because they lack comparable documented engagement or shared policy signals with US officials, though tariff disputes and Brazilian domestic backlash introduce ongoing uncertainty around any formal announcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlávio Bolsonaro 66%
Romeu Zema 5.0%
Augusto Cury 4.8%
Lula da Silva 4%
NEW
NEW
Oct 26, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
66%
Romeu Zema
8%
Augusto Cury
5%
Lula da Silva
4%
Renan Santos
3%
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 66%
Romeu Zema 5.0%
Augusto Cury 4.8%
Lula da Silva 4%
NEW
NEW
Oct 26, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
$2,643 Vol.
66%
Romeu Zema
$511 Vol.
8%
Augusto Cury
$228 Vol.
5%
Lula da Silva
$185 Vol.
4%
Renan Santos
$231 Vol.
3%
Ronaldo Caiado
$221 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of Brazil in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections.
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of Brazil in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections.
An endorsement of an individual for any party’s nomination to contest the 2026 Brazil presidential elections will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Flavio and Lula”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM Brasilia time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus in the Trump endorsement market due to his established family ties to the former Brazilian president, recent Oval Office meetings with the US president, and signals of alignment with Trump administration priorities on trade, security designations, and regional right-wing cooperation. Jair Bolsonaro’s explicit endorsement of his son as the Liberal Party standard-bearer has further consolidated this positioning ahead of the October 2026 vote, while Lula da Silva’s public warnings against foreign interference have highlighted but not derailed the perceived connection. Other candidates remain at lower implied probabilities because they lack comparable documented engagement or shared policy signals with US officials, though tariff disputes and Brazilian domestic backlash introduce ongoing uncertainty around any formal announcement.
This market will resolve according to the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of Brazil in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections.
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of Brazil in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections.
An endorsement of an individual for any party’s nomination to contest the 2026 Brazil presidential elections will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Flavio and Lula”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM Brasilia time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of Brazil in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections.
An endorsement of an individual for any party’s nomination to contest the 2026 Brazil presidential elections will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Flavio and Lula”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM Brasilia time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ET
Volume
$4,020End Date
Oct 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of Brazil in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections.
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of Brazil in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections.
An endorsement of an individual for any party’s nomination to contest the 2026 Brazil presidential elections will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Flavio and Lula”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM Brasilia time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus in the Trump endorsement market due to his established family ties to the former Brazilian president, recent Oval Office meetings with the US president, and signals of alignment with Trump administration priorities on trade, security designations, and regional right-wing cooperation. Jair Bolsonaro’s explicit endorsement of his son as the Liberal Party standard-bearer has further consolidated this positioning ahead of the October 2026 vote, while Lula da Silva’s public warnings against foreign interference have highlighted but not derailed the perceived connection. Other candidates remain at lower implied probabilities because they lack comparable documented engagement or shared policy signals with US officials, though tariff disputes and Brazilian domestic backlash introduce ongoing uncertainty around any formal announcement.
This market will resolve according to the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of Brazil in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections.
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of Brazil in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections.
An endorsement of an individual for any party’s nomination to contest the 2026 Brazil presidential elections will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Flavio and Lula”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM Brasilia time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of Brazil in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2026 Brazil presidential elections.
An endorsement of an individual for any party’s nomination to contest the 2026 Brazil presidential elections will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Flavio and Lula”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM Brasilia time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,020End Date
Oct 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus in the Trump endorsement market due to his established family ties to the former Brazilian president, recent Oval Office meetings with the US president, and signals of alignment with Trump administration priorities on trade, security designations, and regional right-wing cooperation. Jair Bolsonaro’s explicit endorsement of his son as the Liberal Party standard-bearer has further consolidated this positioning ahead of the October 2026 vote, while Lula da Silva’s public warnings against foreign interference have highlighted but not derailed the perceived connection. Other candidates remain at lower implied probabilities because they lack comparable documented engagement or shared policy signals with US officials, though tariff disputes and Brazilian domestic backlash introduce ongoing uncertainty around any formal announcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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