Recent data releases show U.S. home values clustered between roughly $372,000 and $409,000 as of July 2026, with Zillow’s typical home value at $371,774 and Redfin’s median sale price at $408,776—both reflecting only 1–2% year-over-year gains amid elevated 6.5% mortgage rates and rising inventory. These levels, combined with softening listing prices and subdued buyer demand tied to affordability constraints, anchor trader consensus on outcomes below $419,000 by September 30. Persistent supply shortages from the mortgage lock-in effect continue to limit downside, while modest seasonal adjustments and flat-to-slightly-positive momentum through summer keep probabilities concentrated in the sub-$426,000 bands. Key near-term catalysts include the next Census new-home sales figures and Case-Shiller update expected later this month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$419K 60.5%
$419K - $426K 32.6%
$426K - $433K 6.6%
$433K - $440K 3.1%
$53,972 Vol.
$53,972 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<$419K
61%
$419K - $426K
33%
$426K - $433K
7%
$433K - $440K
3%
$440K - $447K
<1%
$447K - $454K
<1%
$454K+
<1%
<$419K 60.5%
$419K - $426K 32.6%
$426K - $433K 6.6%
$433K - $440K 3.1%
$53,972 Vol.
$53,972 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<$419K
$16,633 Vol.
61%
$419K - $426K
$11,032 Vol.
33%
$426K - $433K
$5,733 Vol.
7%
$433K - $440K
$12,353 Vol.
3%
$440K - $447K
$3,627 Vol.
<1%
$447K - $454K
$4,053 Vol.
<1%
$454K+
$542 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)Recent data releases show U.S. home values clustered between roughly $372,000 and $409,000 as of July 2026, with Zillow’s typical home value at $371,774 and Redfin’s median sale price at $408,776—both reflecting only 1–2% year-over-year gains amid elevated 6.5% mortgage rates and rising inventory. These levels, combined with softening listing prices and subdued buyer demand tied to affordability constraints, anchor trader consensus on outcomes below $419,000 by September 30. Persistent supply shortages from the mortgage lock-in effect continue to limit downside, while modest seasonal adjustments and flat-to-slightly-positive momentum through summer keep probabilities concentrated in the sub-$426,000 bands. Key near-term catalysts include the next Census new-home sales figures and Case-Shiller update expected later this month.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 3:55 PM ET
Volume
$53,972End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)Recent data releases show U.S. home values clustered between roughly $372,000 and $409,000 as of July 2026, with Zillow’s typical home value at $371,774 and Redfin’s median sale price at $408,776—both reflecting only 1–2% year-over-year gains amid elevated 6.5% mortgage rates and rising inventory. These levels, combined with softening listing prices and subdued buyer demand tied to affordability constraints, anchor trader consensus on outcomes below $419,000 by September 30. Persistent supply shortages from the mortgage lock-in effect continue to limit downside, while modest seasonal adjustments and flat-to-slightly-positive momentum through summer keep probabilities concentrated in the sub-$426,000 bands. Key near-term catalysts include the next Census new-home sales figures and Case-Shiller update expected later this month.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
Volume
$53,972End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent data releases show U.S. home values clustered between roughly $372,000 and $409,000 as of July 2026, with Zillow’s typical home value at $371,774 and Redfin’s median sale price at $408,776—both reflecting only 1–2% year-over-year gains amid elevated 6.5% mortgage rates and rising inventory. These levels, combined with softening listing prices and subdued buyer demand tied to affordability constraints, anchor trader consensus on outcomes below $419,000 by September 30. Persistent supply shortages from the mortgage lock-in effect continue to limit downside, while modest seasonal adjustments and flat-to-slightly-positive momentum through summer keep probabilities concentrated in the sub-$426,000 bands. Key near-term catalysts include the next Census new-home sales figures and Case-Shiller update expected later this month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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