Elevated mortgage rates near 6-7% and gradually rising inventory continue to temper buyer demand and price momentum in the New York City housing market, anchoring trader consensus on the $636K-$663K median home value band by September 30, 2026, at 64.9% implied probability. Recent Redfin and Zillow data through mid-2026 show median sale prices holding in the $785K-$885K range with only 1-2% year-over-year gains, reflecting affordability constraints and a shift toward a more balanced market. Low but expanding supply, coupled with selective buyer behavior, has limited upside while supporting stability near current levels. Potential Fed easing later in 2026 remains a key swing factor that could influence final resolution if it accelerates transaction volume before quarter-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$636K - $663K 64.9%
$609K - $636K 28.3%
$582K - $609K 2.1%
$663K - $689K 1.0%
$30,440 Vol.
$30,440 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<$555K
<1%
$555K - $582K
<1%
$582K - $609K
2%
$609K - $636K
28%
$636K - $663K
65%
$663K - $689K
1%
$689K+
<1%
$636K - $663K 64.9%
$609K - $636K 28.3%
$582K - $609K 2.1%
$663K - $689K 1.0%
$30,440 Vol.
$30,440 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<$555K
$603 Vol.
<1%
$555K - $582K
$1,855 Vol.
<1%
$582K - $609K
$483 Vol.
2%
$609K - $636K
$6,447 Vol.
28%
$636K - $663K
$19,774 Vol.
65%
$663K - $689K
$583 Vol.
1%
$689K+
$694 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/50)Elevated mortgage rates near 6-7% and gradually rising inventory continue to temper buyer demand and price momentum in the New York City housing market, anchoring trader consensus on the $636K-$663K median home value band by September 30, 2026, at 64.9% implied probability. Recent Redfin and Zillow data through mid-2026 show median sale prices holding in the $785K-$885K range with only 1-2% year-over-year gains, reflecting affordability constraints and a shift toward a more balanced market. Low but expanding supply, coupled with selective buyer behavior, has limited upside while supporting stability near current levels. Potential Fed easing later in 2026 remains a key swing factor that could influence final resolution if it accelerates transaction volume before quarter-end.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/50)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/50)
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$30,440End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/50)Elevated mortgage rates near 6-7% and gradually rising inventory continue to temper buyer demand and price momentum in the New York City housing market, anchoring trader consensus on the $636K-$663K median home value band by September 30, 2026, at 64.9% implied probability. Recent Redfin and Zillow data through mid-2026 show median sale prices holding in the $785K-$885K range with only 1-2% year-over-year gains, reflecting affordability constraints and a shift toward a more balanced market. Low but expanding supply, coupled with selective buyer behavior, has limited upside while supporting stability near current levels. Potential Fed easing later in 2026 remains a key swing factor that could influence final resolution if it accelerates transaction volume before quarter-end.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/50)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/50)
Volume
$30,440End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated mortgage rates near 6-7% and gradually rising inventory continue to temper buyer demand and price momentum in the New York City housing market, anchoring trader consensus on the $636K-$663K median home value band by September 30, 2026, at 64.9% implied probability. Recent Redfin and Zillow data through mid-2026 show median sale prices holding in the $785K-$885K range with only 1-2% year-over-year gains, reflecting affordability constraints and a shift toward a more balanced market. Low but expanding supply, coupled with selective buyer behavior, has limited upside while supporting stability near current levels. Potential Fed easing later in 2026 remains a key swing factor that could influence final resolution if it accelerates transaction volume before quarter-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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