Recent momentum in the San Francisco metro housing market reflects tight inventory, robust tech-sector demand tied to AI-driven hiring, and mortgage rates holding near 6 percent, supporting year-over-year price gains of 11-15 percent through mid-2026. Trader consensus around the sub-$1.176 million and $1.176-1.198 million buckets aligns with the latest Zillow Home Value Index readings near $1.17 million for the broader Bay Area and gradual rather than sharp appreciation into late summer. Key near-term influences include Federal Reserve communications on potential rate relief and seasonal sales data, which have historically shown limited acceleration between August and September. Elevated supply constraints continue to underpin values, yet the narrow probability distribution above $1.22 million indicates limited scope for rapid upside before the September 30 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$1.176M 52%
$1.176M - $1.198M 36%
$1.220M - $1.242M 6.8%
$1.198M - $1.220M 7%
$36,344 Vol.
$36,344 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<$1.176M
52%
$1.176M - $1.198M
36%
$1.198M - $1.220M
7%
$1.220M - $1.242M
7%
$1.242M - $1.264M
6%
$1.264M - $1.284M
<1%
$1.284M+
<1%
<$1.176M 52%
$1.176M - $1.198M 36%
$1.220M - $1.242M 6.8%
$1.198M - $1.220M 7%
$36,344 Vol.
$36,344 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<$1.176M
$14,402 Vol.
52%
$1.176M - $1.198M
$13,627 Vol.
36%
$1.198M - $1.220M
$1,816 Vol.
7%
$1.220M - $1.242M
$1,808 Vol.
7%
$1.242M - $1.264M
$2,731 Vol.
6%
$1.264M - $1.284M
$904 Vol.
<1%
$1.284M+
$1,057 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)Recent momentum in the San Francisco metro housing market reflects tight inventory, robust tech-sector demand tied to AI-driven hiring, and mortgage rates holding near 6 percent, supporting year-over-year price gains of 11-15 percent through mid-2026. Trader consensus around the sub-$1.176 million and $1.176-1.198 million buckets aligns with the latest Zillow Home Value Index readings near $1.17 million for the broader Bay Area and gradual rather than sharp appreciation into late summer. Key near-term influences include Federal Reserve communications on potential rate relief and seasonal sales data, which have historically shown limited acceleration between August and September. Elevated supply constraints continue to underpin values, yet the narrow probability distribution above $1.22 million indicates limited scope for rapid upside before the September 30 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$36,344End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)Recent momentum in the San Francisco metro housing market reflects tight inventory, robust tech-sector demand tied to AI-driven hiring, and mortgage rates holding near 6 percent, supporting year-over-year price gains of 11-15 percent through mid-2026. Trader consensus around the sub-$1.176 million and $1.176-1.198 million buckets aligns with the latest Zillow Home Value Index readings near $1.17 million for the broader Bay Area and gradual rather than sharp appreciation into late summer. Key near-term influences include Federal Reserve communications on potential rate relief and seasonal sales data, which have historically shown limited acceleration between August and September. Elevated supply constraints continue to underpin values, yet the narrow probability distribution above $1.22 million indicates limited scope for rapid upside before the September 30 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Volume
$36,344End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent momentum in the San Francisco metro housing market reflects tight inventory, robust tech-sector demand tied to AI-driven hiring, and mortgage rates holding near 6 percent, supporting year-over-year price gains of 11-15 percent through mid-2026. Trader consensus around the sub-$1.176 million and $1.176-1.198 million buckets aligns with the latest Zillow Home Value Index readings near $1.17 million for the broader Bay Area and gradual rather than sharp appreciation into late summer. Key near-term influences include Federal Reserve communications on potential rate relief and seasonal sales data, which have historically shown limited acceleration between August and September. Elevated supply constraints continue to underpin values, yet the narrow probability distribution above $1.22 million indicates limited scope for rapid upside before the September 30 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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