Taylor Swift holds the edge in the VMA Artist of the Year market at 47% implied probability, driven by her nine nominations, record-setting VMA history, and the newly announced inaugural Artist Director Honors recognizing her directorial work. Madonna leads overall nominations with 11 to 13 nods tied to her Confessions II project and a high-profile performance slot, yet trails at 16.5% as traders weigh her strong but less dominant recent chart impact against Swift’s sustained streaming and cultural reach. Ariana Grande follows at 34.5% on the strength of eight nominations and “Hate That I Made You Love Me,” while Sabrina Carpenter sits at 7% amid her seven nods and ongoing pop momentum. Bruno Mars and Morgan Wallen remain long shots below 1%. With fan voting closing September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony, late shifts in public sentiment or streaming data could still sway the outcome among the six nominees.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVMA Artist of the Year 2026
VMA Artist of the Year 2026
Taylor Swift 47%
Ariana Grande 27%
Madonna 17%
Sabrina Carpenter 4.2%
$15,268 Vol.
$15,268 Vol.
Sep 27, 2026
Taylor Swift
47%
Ariana Grande
33%
Madonna
17%
Sabrina Carpenter
4%
Bruno Mars
1%
Morgan Wallen
1%
Taylor Swift 47%
Ariana Grande 27%
Madonna 17%
Sabrina Carpenter 4.2%
$15,268 Vol.
$15,268 Vol.
Sep 27, 2026
Taylor Swift
$3,706 Vol.
47%
Ariana Grande
$7,373 Vol.
33%
Madonna
$2,489 Vol.
17%
Sabrina Carpenter
$730 Vol.
4%
Bruno Mars
$618 Vol.
1%
Morgan Wallen
$352 Vol.
1%
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed artist who wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year.
If an artist was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated artist whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Taylor Swift holds the edge in the VMA Artist of the Year market at 47% implied probability, driven by her nine nominations, record-setting VMA history, and the newly announced inaugural Artist Director Honors recognizing her directorial work. Madonna leads overall nominations with 11 to 13 nods tied to her Confessions II project and a high-profile performance slot, yet trails at 16.5% as traders weigh her strong but less dominant recent chart impact against Swift’s sustained streaming and cultural reach. Ariana Grande follows at 34.5% on the strength of eight nominations and “Hate That I Made You Love Me,” while Sabrina Carpenter sits at 7% amid her seven nods and ongoing pop momentum. Bruno Mars and Morgan Wallen remain long shots below 1%. With fan voting closing September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony, late shifts in public sentiment or streaming data could still sway the outcome among the six nominees.
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed artist who wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year.
If an artist was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated artist whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed artist who wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year.
If an artist was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated artist whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$15,268End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed artist who wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year.
If an artist was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated artist whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Taylor Swift holds the edge in the VMA Artist of the Year market at 47% implied probability, driven by her nine nominations, record-setting VMA history, and the newly announced inaugural Artist Director Honors recognizing her directorial work. Madonna leads overall nominations with 11 to 13 nods tied to her Confessions II project and a high-profile performance slot, yet trails at 16.5% as traders weigh her strong but less dominant recent chart impact against Swift’s sustained streaming and cultural reach. Ariana Grande follows at 34.5% on the strength of eight nominations and “Hate That I Made You Love Me,” while Sabrina Carpenter sits at 7% amid her seven nods and ongoing pop momentum. Bruno Mars and Morgan Wallen remain long shots below 1%. With fan voting closing September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony, late shifts in public sentiment or streaming data could still sway the outcome among the six nominees.
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed artist who wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year.
If an artist was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated artist whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed artist who wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year.
If an artist was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated artist whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$15,268End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Taylor Swift holds the edge in the VMA Artist of the Year market at 47% implied probability, driven by her nine nominations, record-setting VMA history, and the newly announced inaugural Artist Director Honors recognizing her directorial work. Madonna leads overall nominations with 11 to 13 nods tied to her Confessions II project and a high-profile performance slot, yet trails at 16.5% as traders weigh her strong but less dominant recent chart impact against Swift’s sustained streaming and cultural reach. Ariana Grande follows at 34.5% on the strength of eight nominations and “Hate That I Made You Love Me,” while Sabrina Carpenter sits at 7% amid her seven nods and ongoing pop momentum. Bruno Mars and Morgan Wallen remain long shots below 1%. With fan voting closing September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony, late shifts in public sentiment or streaming data could still sway the outcome among the six nominees.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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