Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” holds the strongest trader consensus at 43.5% implied probability, reflecting her enduring dance-music legacy and the project’s high-profile rollout. PinkPantheress’s “Stateside + Zara Larsson” sits close behind at 34.5%, buoyed by strong streaming momentum and critical buzz around its club-ready production. Harry Styles’s “Aperture” and the Lady Gaga–Doechii collaboration “Runway” trail at 10.4% and 9.5%, respectively, as voters weigh artistic reinvention against established dance-floor credentials. Tate McRae and Bebe Rexha entries remain long shots below 7%, underscoring how recent chart performance and precursor industry chatter have shaped the current market hierarchy ahead of the ceremony.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVMA Best Dance 2026
VMA Best Dance 2026
Confessions II – The Film (Madonna) 44%
Stateside + Zara Larsson (PinkPantheress) 35%
Aperture (Harry Styles) 10.4%
Runway (Lady Gaga and Doechii) 9.5%
$15,555 Vol.
$15,555 Vol.
Sep 27, 2026
Confessions II – The Film (Madonna)
44%
Stateside + Zara Larsson (PinkPantheress)
35%
Aperture (Harry Styles)
10%
Runway (Lady Gaga and Doechii)
10%
Nobody's Girl (Tate McRae)
7%
New Religion (Bebe Rexha and Faithless)
2%
Dance... (Slayyyter)
1%
Confessions II – The Film (Madonna) 44%
Stateside + Zara Larsson (PinkPantheress) 35%
Aperture (Harry Styles) 10.4%
Runway (Lady Gaga and Doechii) 9.5%
$15,555 Vol.
$15,555 Vol.
Sep 27, 2026
Confessions II – The Film (Madonna)
$1,327 Vol.
44%
Stateside + Zara Larsson (PinkPantheress)
$13,102 Vol.
35%
Aperture (Harry Styles)
$194 Vol.
10%
Runway (Lady Gaga and Doechii)
$234 Vol.
10%
Nobody's Girl (Tate McRae)
$288 Vol.
7%
New Religion (Bebe Rexha and Faithless)
$252 Vol.
2%
Dance... (Slayyyter)
$158 Vol.
1%
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” holds the strongest trader consensus at 43.5% implied probability, reflecting her enduring dance-music legacy and the project’s high-profile rollout. PinkPantheress’s “Stateside + Zara Larsson” sits close behind at 34.5%, buoyed by strong streaming momentum and critical buzz around its club-ready production. Harry Styles’s “Aperture” and the Lady Gaga–Doechii collaboration “Runway” trail at 10.4% and 9.5%, respectively, as voters weigh artistic reinvention against established dance-floor credentials. Tate McRae and Bebe Rexha entries remain long shots below 7%, underscoring how recent chart performance and precursor industry chatter have shaped the current market hierarchy ahead of the ceremony.
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
Volume
$15,555End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” holds the strongest trader consensus at 43.5% implied probability, reflecting her enduring dance-music legacy and the project’s high-profile rollout. PinkPantheress’s “Stateside + Zara Larsson” sits close behind at 34.5%, buoyed by strong streaming momentum and critical buzz around its club-ready production. Harry Styles’s “Aperture” and the Lady Gaga–Doechii collaboration “Runway” trail at 10.4% and 9.5%, respectively, as voters weigh artistic reinvention against established dance-floor credentials. Tate McRae and Bebe Rexha entries remain long shots below 7%, underscoring how recent chart performance and precursor industry chatter have shaped the current market hierarchy ahead of the ceremony.
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$15,555End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” holds the strongest trader consensus at 43.5% implied probability, reflecting her enduring dance-music legacy and the project’s high-profile rollout. PinkPantheress’s “Stateside + Zara Larsson” sits close behind at 34.5%, buoyed by strong streaming momentum and critical buzz around its club-ready production. Harry Styles’s “Aperture” and the Lady Gaga–Doechii collaboration “Runway” trail at 10.4% and 9.5%, respectively, as voters weigh artistic reinvention against established dance-floor credentials. Tate McRae and Bebe Rexha entries remain long shots below 7%, underscoring how recent chart performance and precursor industry chatter have shaped the current market hierarchy ahead of the ceremony.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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