The US has taken no official diplomatic actions or issued policy statements recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader, consistent with standard practice of acknowledging governments exercising effective control rather than exiled opposition figures. Recent developments, including President Trump's public skepticism about Pahlavi's ability to secure domestic Iranian backing and a June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding that explicitly respects Tehran's sovereignty without referencing regime change, have reinforced trader expectations. Pahlavi remains an active opposition voice advocating a secular transition, yet internal divisions and lack of broad mobilization inside Iran limit momentum. The near-certain "No" pricing reflects this stable diplomatic posture. A sudden collapse of the Islamic Republic enabling Pahlavi to lead a transitional government with explicit US endorsement before December 31, 2026, remains the primary scenario that could shift the outcome.