President Donald Trump proposed a 20% U.S. reimbursement fee on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz in mid-July 2026 to cover security costs but reversed course days later, shifting to Gulf state investment and trade commitments instead. This followed a June U.S.-Iran MOU providing temporary toll-free passage, which unraveled amid renewed Iranian attacks, a U.S. naval blockade reimposition, and disputes over long-term administration with Oman. International shipping groups and the IMO have opposed mandatory fees or equivalent service charges as contrary to freedom-of-navigation norms, while Iran advances parallel plans for its own levies or route controls. As of mid-August, these diplomatic and policy shifts have driven trader consensus to near-zero implied probability for U.S. fees by late summer or year-end deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS charges Hormuz fees by...?
US charges Hormuz fees by...?
$961,377 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
August 31
1%
December 31
7%
$961,377 Vol.
August 31
$176,317 Vol.
1%
December 31
$97,908 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump proposed a 20% U.S. reimbursement fee on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz in mid-July 2026 to cover security costs but reversed course days later, shifting to Gulf state investment and trade commitments instead. This followed a June U.S.-Iran MOU providing temporary toll-free passage, which unraveled amid renewed Iranian attacks, a U.S. naval blockade reimposition, and disputes over long-term administration with Oman. International shipping groups and the IMO have opposed mandatory fees or equivalent service charges as contrary to freedom-of-navigation norms, while Iran advances parallel plans for its own levies or route controls. As of mid-August, these diplomatic and policy shifts have driven trader consensus to near-zero implied probability for U.S. fees by late summer or year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Volume
$961,377End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump proposed a 20% U.S. reimbursement fee on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz in mid-July 2026 to cover security costs but reversed course days later, shifting to Gulf state investment and trade commitments instead. This followed a June U.S.-Iran MOU providing temporary toll-free passage, which unraveled amid renewed Iranian attacks, a U.S. naval blockade reimposition, and disputes over long-term administration with Oman. International shipping groups and the IMO have opposed mandatory fees or equivalent service charges as contrary to freedom-of-navigation norms, while Iran advances parallel plans for its own levies or route controls. As of mid-August, these diplomatic and policy shifts have driven trader consensus to near-zero implied probability for U.S. fees by late summer or year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$961,377End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Donald Trump proposed a 20% U.S. reimbursement fee on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz in mid-July 2026 to cover security costs but reversed course days later, shifting to Gulf state investment and trade commitments instead. This followed a June U.S.-Iran MOU providing temporary toll-free passage, which unraveled amid renewed Iranian attacks, a U.S. naval blockade reimposition, and disputes over long-term administration with Oman. International shipping groups and the IMO have opposed mandatory fees or equivalent service charges as contrary to freedom-of-navigation norms, while Iran advances parallel plans for its own levies or route controls. As of mid-August, these diplomatic and policy shifts have driven trader consensus to near-zero implied probability for U.S. fees by late summer or year-end deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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