Persistent fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces has continued into mid-2026 with no sustained nationwide ceasefire, despite repeated mediation by the Quad (United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE) and African Union efforts. The RSF accepted a proposed three-month humanitarian truce in late 2025, but the SAF has conditioned any talks on RSF withdrawals from key areas and timelines for disarmament. Recent developments include SAF advances in prior months, RSF-backed groups rejecting Addis Ababa consultations in July 2026 over procedural issues, and ongoing sieges, drone strikes, and civilian displacement that have blocked aid corridors. External backing for both sides, divergent conditions for de-escalation, and the absence of enforceable monitoring mechanisms have kept breakthrough prospects limited, even as international conferences in Berlin and elsewhere reiterated calls for an immediate truce followed by political transition. Scheduled diplomatic coordination and any verified battlefield shifts within coming months remain the main variables that could alter timelines for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSudan civil war ceasefire by...?
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$106,221 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
17%
$106,221 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$1,683 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.Persistent fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces has continued into mid-2026 with no sustained nationwide ceasefire, despite repeated mediation by the Quad (United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE) and African Union efforts. The RSF accepted a proposed three-month humanitarian truce in late 2025, but the SAF has conditioned any talks on RSF withdrawals from key areas and timelines for disarmament. Recent developments include SAF advances in prior months, RSF-backed groups rejecting Addis Ababa consultations in July 2026 over procedural issues, and ongoing sieges, drone strikes, and civilian displacement that have blocked aid corridors. External backing for both sides, divergent conditions for de-escalation, and the absence of enforceable monitoring mechanisms have kept breakthrough prospects limited, even as international conferences in Berlin and elsewhere reiterated calls for an immediate truce followed by political transition. Scheduled diplomatic coordination and any verified battlefield shifts within coming months remain the main variables that could alter timelines for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ET
Volume
$106,221End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.Persistent fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces has continued into mid-2026 with no sustained nationwide ceasefire, despite repeated mediation by the Quad (United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE) and African Union efforts. The RSF accepted a proposed three-month humanitarian truce in late 2025, but the SAF has conditioned any talks on RSF withdrawals from key areas and timelines for disarmament. Recent developments include SAF advances in prior months, RSF-backed groups rejecting Addis Ababa consultations in July 2026 over procedural issues, and ongoing sieges, drone strikes, and civilian displacement that have blocked aid corridors. External backing for both sides, divergent conditions for de-escalation, and the absence of enforceable monitoring mechanisms have kept breakthrough prospects limited, even as international conferences in Berlin and elsewhere reiterated calls for an immediate truce followed by political transition. Scheduled diplomatic coordination and any verified battlefield shifts within coming months remain the main variables that could alter timelines for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$106,221End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces has continued into mid-2026 with no sustained nationwide ceasefire, despite repeated mediation by the Quad (United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE) and African Union efforts. The RSF accepted a proposed three-month humanitarian truce in late 2025, but the SAF has conditioned any talks on RSF withdrawals from key areas and timelines for disarmament. Recent developments include SAF advances in prior months, RSF-backed groups rejecting Addis Ababa consultations in July 2026 over procedural issues, and ongoing sieges, drone strikes, and civilian displacement that have blocked aid corridors. External backing for both sides, divergent conditions for de-escalation, and the absence of enforceable monitoring mechanisms have kept breakthrough prospects limited, even as international conferences in Berlin and elsewhere reiterated calls for an immediate truce followed by political transition. Scheduled diplomatic coordination and any verified battlefield shifts within coming months remain the main variables that could alter timelines for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions