Recent polling across Quebec shows the Parti Québécois maintaining a consistent lead in voting intentions at roughly 30%, ahead of the PLQ near 25-27% and the incumbent CAQ at around 20%, with seat projections from models like 338Canada and Qc125 indicating the PQ is positioned to secure a majority of National Assembly seats ahead of the October 5, 2026, general election. This positioning stems from sustained support among francophone voters and a sharp decline for the CAQ since its 2022 victory, compounded by a February 2026 by-election win for the PQ in Chicoutimi and leadership adjustments within the CAQ earlier in the year. The PLQ remains competitive in some urban and non-francophone areas but trails in overall projections, while smaller parties like QS and PCQ register lower single-digit support insufficient for majority contention. Trader consensus in the market aligns with these polling trends and historical first-past-the-post dynamics in the province, where the frontrunner typically converts modest vote leads into decisive seat advantages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedQuebec General Election Winner
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ 75%
PLQ 15%
CAQ 13%
PCQ <1%
$757,596 Vol.
$757,596 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
PQ
75%
PLQ
15%
CAQ
13%
PCQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PVQ
<1%
PQ 75%
PLQ 15%
CAQ 13%
PCQ <1%
$757,596 Vol.
$757,596 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
PQ
$81,622 Vol.
75%
PLQ
$101,564 Vol.
15%
CAQ
$107,974 Vol.
13%
PCQ
$207,495 Vol.
<1%
QS
$101,443 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$157,498 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling across Quebec shows the Parti Québécois maintaining a consistent lead in voting intentions at roughly 30%, ahead of the PLQ near 25-27% and the incumbent CAQ at around 20%, with seat projections from models like 338Canada and Qc125 indicating the PQ is positioned to secure a majority of National Assembly seats ahead of the October 5, 2026, general election. This positioning stems from sustained support among francophone voters and a sharp decline for the CAQ since its 2022 victory, compounded by a February 2026 by-election win for the PQ in Chicoutimi and leadership adjustments within the CAQ earlier in the year. The PLQ remains competitive in some urban and non-francophone areas but trails in overall projections, while smaller parties like QS and PCQ register lower single-digit support insufficient for majority contention. Trader consensus in the market aligns with these polling trends and historical first-past-the-post dynamics in the province, where the frontrunner typically converts modest vote leads into decisive seat advantages.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$757,596End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling across Quebec shows the Parti Québécois maintaining a consistent lead in voting intentions at roughly 30%, ahead of the PLQ near 25-27% and the incumbent CAQ at around 20%, with seat projections from models like 338Canada and Qc125 indicating the PQ is positioned to secure a majority of National Assembly seats ahead of the October 5, 2026, general election. This positioning stems from sustained support among francophone voters and a sharp decline for the CAQ since its 2022 victory, compounded by a February 2026 by-election win for the PQ in Chicoutimi and leadership adjustments within the CAQ earlier in the year. The PLQ remains competitive in some urban and non-francophone areas but trails in overall projections, while smaller parties like QS and PCQ register lower single-digit support insufficient for majority contention. Trader consensus in the market aligns with these polling trends and historical first-past-the-post dynamics in the province, where the frontrunner typically converts modest vote leads into decisive seat advantages.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$757,596End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling across Quebec shows the Parti Québécois maintaining a consistent lead in voting intentions at roughly 30%, ahead of the PLQ near 25-27% and the incumbent CAQ at around 20%, with seat projections from models like 338Canada and Qc125 indicating the PQ is positioned to secure a majority of National Assembly seats ahead of the October 5, 2026, general election. This positioning stems from sustained support among francophone voters and a sharp decline for the CAQ since its 2022 victory, compounded by a February 2026 by-election win for the PQ in Chicoutimi and leadership adjustments within the CAQ earlier in the year. The PLQ remains competitive in some urban and non-francophone areas but trails in overall projections, while smaller parties like QS and PCQ register lower single-digit support insufficient for majority contention. Trader consensus in the market aligns with these polling trends and historical first-past-the-post dynamics in the province, where the frontrunner typically converts modest vote leads into decisive seat advantages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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