Oklahoma's 2026 Senate contest features Republican nominee Kevin Hern facing a Democratic candidate to be determined in the August 25 runoff between Jim Priest and N'Kiyla Thomas. The state's consistent Republican tilt, reflected in prior Senate results and current nonpartisan ratings labeling the race Solid or Safe Republican, anchors trader expectations around a double-digit GOP margin. With the general election still months away and no public head-to-head polling released, probabilities cluster on Republican victory margins of 20-35 points while assigning minimal weight to a Democratic win. The closely balanced Person A and Other outcomes likely capture residual uncertainty over nominee identity or exact margin brackets rather than a competitive general-election dynamic. Factors that could widen or narrow the spread include the Democratic runoff result, shifts in national political conditions, campaign spending differentials, or late-cycle turnout patterns in this open-seat race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRepublican 25-30% 22%
Republican 20-25% 19%
Republican 30-35% 16%
Republican 15-20% 11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 45%+
2%
Republican 40-45%
3%
Republican 35-40%
9%
Republican 30-35%
16%
Republican 25-30%
22%
Republican 20-25%
19%
Republican 15-20%
11%
Republican 10-15%
9%
Republican 0-10%
2%
Democrat Wins
1%
Republican 25-30% 22%
Republican 20-25% 19%
Republican 30-35% 16%
Republican 15-20% 11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 45%+
$127 Vol.
2%
Republican 40-45%
$138 Vol.
3%
Republican 35-40%
$127 Vol.
9%
Republican 30-35%
$278 Vol.
16%
Republican 25-30%
$476 Vol.
22%
Republican 20-25%
$188 Vol.
19%
Republican 15-20%
$177 Vol.
11%
Republican 10-15%
$127 Vol.
9%
Republican 0-10%
$147 Vol.
2%
Democrat Wins
$200 Vol.
1%
The 2026 Oklahoma Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Oklahoma Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Oklahoma's 2026 Senate contest features Republican nominee Kevin Hern facing a Democratic candidate to be determined in the August 25 runoff between Jim Priest and N'Kiyla Thomas. The state's consistent Republican tilt, reflected in prior Senate results and current nonpartisan ratings labeling the race Solid or Safe Republican, anchors trader expectations around a double-digit GOP margin. With the general election still months away and no public head-to-head polling released, probabilities cluster on Republican victory margins of 20-35 points while assigning minimal weight to a Democratic win. The closely balanced Person A and Other outcomes likely capture residual uncertainty over nominee identity or exact margin brackets rather than a competitive general-election dynamic. Factors that could widen or narrow the spread include the Democratic runoff result, shifts in national political conditions, campaign spending differentials, or late-cycle turnout patterns in this open-seat race.
The 2026 Oklahoma Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Oklahoma Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Oklahoma Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$1,985End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Oklahoma Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Oklahoma Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Oklahoma's 2026 Senate contest features Republican nominee Kevin Hern facing a Democratic candidate to be determined in the August 25 runoff between Jim Priest and N'Kiyla Thomas. The state's consistent Republican tilt, reflected in prior Senate results and current nonpartisan ratings labeling the race Solid or Safe Republican, anchors trader expectations around a double-digit GOP margin. With the general election still months away and no public head-to-head polling released, probabilities cluster on Republican victory margins of 20-35 points while assigning minimal weight to a Democratic win. The closely balanced Person A and Other outcomes likely capture residual uncertainty over nominee identity or exact margin brackets rather than a competitive general-election dynamic. Factors that could widen or narrow the spread include the Democratic runoff result, shifts in national political conditions, campaign spending differentials, or late-cycle turnout patterns in this open-seat race.
The 2026 Oklahoma Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Oklahoma Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Oklahoma Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,985End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Oklahoma's 2026 Senate contest features Republican nominee Kevin Hern facing a Democratic candidate to be determined in the August 25 runoff between Jim Priest and N'Kiyla Thomas. The state's consistent Republican tilt, reflected in prior Senate results and current nonpartisan ratings labeling the race Solid or Safe Republican, anchors trader expectations around a double-digit GOP margin. With the general election still months away and no public head-to-head polling released, probabilities cluster on Republican victory margins of 20-35 points while assigning minimal weight to a Democratic win. The closely balanced Person A and Other outcomes likely capture residual uncertainty over nominee identity or exact margin brackets rather than a competitive general-election dynamic. Factors that could widen or narrow the spread include the Democratic runoff result, shifts in national political conditions, campaign spending differentials, or late-cycle turnout patterns in this open-seat race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions