North Korea has conducted two confirmed ballistic missile tests in August 2026 so far, both short-range launches from the Wonsan area on August 6 and August 12, timed ahead of scheduled U.S.-South Korea joint military drills that Pyongyang routinely protests as rehearsal activity. These firings mark the 11th suspected test of the year and align with established patterns of weapons development and signaling amid ongoing regional tensions and North Korea’s focus on missile and nuclear capabilities. With roughly half the month remaining and drills imminent, trader consensus assigns 65% probability to three or more tests by month-end, reflecting expectations of additional launches, while the 34% on exactly two accounts for the chance that no further escalatory triggers emerge before August 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNumber of North Korea Missile Tests in August 2026?
Number of North Korea Missile Tests in August 2026?
$63,801 Vol.
$63,801 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
2
34%
3+
65%
$63,801 Vol.
$63,801 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
2
$12,115 Vol.
34%
3+
$16,772 Vol.
65%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea has conducted two confirmed ballistic missile tests in August 2026 so far, both short-range launches from the Wonsan area on August 6 and August 12, timed ahead of scheduled U.S.-South Korea joint military drills that Pyongyang routinely protests as rehearsal activity. These firings mark the 11th suspected test of the year and align with established patterns of weapons development and signaling amid ongoing regional tensions and North Korea’s focus on missile and nuclear capabilities. With roughly half the month remaining and drills imminent, trader consensus assigns 65% probability to three or more tests by month-end, reflecting expectations of additional launches, while the 34% on exactly two accounts for the chance that no further escalatory triggers emerge before August 31.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 2:15 PM ET
Volume
$63,801End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea has conducted two confirmed ballistic missile tests in August 2026 so far, both short-range launches from the Wonsan area on August 6 and August 12, timed ahead of scheduled U.S.-South Korea joint military drills that Pyongyang routinely protests as rehearsal activity. These firings mark the 11th suspected test of the year and align with established patterns of weapons development and signaling amid ongoing regional tensions and North Korea’s focus on missile and nuclear capabilities. With roughly half the month remaining and drills imminent, trader consensus assigns 65% probability to three or more tests by month-end, reflecting expectations of additional launches, while the 34% on exactly two accounts for the chance that no further escalatory triggers emerge before August 31.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$63,801End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...North Korea has conducted two confirmed ballistic missile tests in August 2026 so far, both short-range launches from the Wonsan area on August 6 and August 12, timed ahead of scheduled U.S.-South Korea joint military drills that Pyongyang routinely protests as rehearsal activity. These firings mark the 11th suspected test of the year and align with established patterns of weapons development and signaling amid ongoing regional tensions and North Korea’s focus on missile and nuclear capabilities. With roughly half the month remaining and drills imminent, trader consensus assigns 65% probability to three or more tests by month-end, reflecting expectations of additional launches, while the 34% on exactly two accounts for the chance that no further escalatory triggers emerge before August 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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