Herb Conaway, the Democratic incumbent in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district, enters the November 2026 general election with a commanding lead after winning his 2024 race and facing no primary opposition. The district’s partisan voting index favors Democrats, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on its suburban composition across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, the recent primary winner, confronts structural headwinds in a district that supported Kamala Harris by roughly eight points in the prior cycle. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these fundamentals while leaving room for shifts from national midterm dynamics, late campaign developments, or unusually high turnout in either party.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-03 House Election Winner
NJ-03 House Election Winner
$26,418 Vol.
$26,418 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
$26,418 Vol.
$26,418 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$12,895 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$13,523 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Herb Conaway, the Democratic incumbent in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district, enters the November 2026 general election with a commanding lead after winning his 2024 race and facing no primary opposition. The district’s partisan voting index favors Democrats, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on its suburban composition across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, the recent primary winner, confronts structural headwinds in a district that supported Kamala Harris by roughly eight points in the prior cycle. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these fundamentals while leaving room for shifts from national midterm dynamics, late campaign developments, or unusually high turnout in either party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$26,418End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Herb Conaway, the Democratic incumbent in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district, enters the November 2026 general election with a commanding lead after winning his 2024 race and facing no primary opposition. The district’s partisan voting index favors Democrats, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on its suburban composition across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, the recent primary winner, confronts structural headwinds in a district that supported Kamala Harris by roughly eight points in the prior cycle. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these fundamentals while leaving room for shifts from national midterm dynamics, late campaign developments, or unusually high turnout in either party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,418End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Herb Conaway, the Democratic incumbent in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district, enters the November 2026 general election with a commanding lead after winning his 2024 race and facing no primary opposition. The district’s partisan voting index favors Democrats, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on its suburban composition across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, the recent primary winner, confronts structural headwinds in a district that supported Kamala Harris by roughly eight points in the prior cycle. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these fundamentals while leaving room for shifts from national midterm dynamics, late campaign developments, or unusually high turnout in either party.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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