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icon for Next UK by-election called by…?

Next UK by-election called by…?

icon for Next UK by-election called by…?

Next UK by-election called by…?

NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$4,398 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$2,464 Vol.

22%

December 31

$1,935 Vol.

61%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent vacancies in Makerfield (June) and Clacton (triggered by Nigel Farage’s July resignation, with polling on 13 August) have kept attention on the process for moving writs in the House of Commons. Under established convention, the motion is typically introduced by the Chief Whip of the party that previously held the seat, though government or opposition business managers can act when timing or procedural considerations arise. With the Labour government holding a majority, trader focus centers on whether future resignations or disqualifications will follow the same pattern or prompt exceptions, alongside any procedural notes from the Commons Library on statutory timetables that discourage August polls. No new vacancies have been confirmed in the immediate aftermath of the Clacton contest, leaving the identity of the next mover dependent on the next MP departure and party positioning.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$4,398
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent vacancies in Makerfield (June) and Clacton (triggered by Nigel Farage’s July resignation, with polling on 13 August) have kept attention on the process for moving writs in the House of Commons. Under established convention, the motion is typically introduced by the Chief Whip of the party that previously held the seat, though government or opposition business managers can act when timing or procedural considerations arise. With the Labour government holding a majority, trader focus centers on whether future resignations or disqualifications will follow the same pattern or prompt exceptions, alongside any procedural notes from the Commons Library on statutory timetables that discourage August polls. No new vacancies have been confirmed in the immediate aftermath of the Clacton contest, leaving the identity of the next mover dependent on the next MP departure and party positioning.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$4,398
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next UK by-election called by…?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 61%, followed by "September 30" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Next UK by-election called by…?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Next UK by-election called by…?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next UK by-election called by…?" is "December 31" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next UK by-election called by…?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.