Jordan Bardella’s position as incumbent president of the National Rally since his 2022 election with 85 percent of member votes underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring his re-election in 2026. He has modernized party messaging, expanded its youth appeal, and maintained high internal cohesion while Marine Le Pen focuses on the 2027 presidential contest following the July 2026 appeals ruling that reduced her office-holding restrictions. Low probabilities for Le Pen and other figures reflect their limited recent challenges to party structures and Bardella’s established control over candidate selection and strategy. Late shifts could occur if Le Pen reverses course to contest leadership or if unforeseen internal disputes emerge ahead of the congress.