Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election shows the right-wing and religious bloc led by Likud hovering near or occasionally reaching 61 seats in some surveys, while centrist and opposition groupings often fall just short. The Knesset completed its first full term since 1988 before dissolving in July, setting up a contest where coalition arithmetic hinges on Haredi parties, far-right factions, and potential kingmakers such as Yisrael Beiteinu. Traders assign a 64% implied probability to "No" hung parliament because historical patterns of bloc discipline and late-campaign shifts have frequently enabled one side to assemble a majority once seats are allocated, even amid fragmented results. Ongoing security developments and voter consolidation within the nationalist camp remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated36% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 27, 2026
36% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 27, 2026
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election shows the right-wing and religious bloc led by Likud hovering near or occasionally reaching 61 seats in some surveys, while centrist and opposition groupings often fall just short. The Knesset completed its first full term since 1988 before dissolving in July, setting up a contest where coalition arithmetic hinges on Haredi parties, far-right factions, and potential kingmakers such as Yisrael Beiteinu. Traders assign a 64% implied probability to "No" hung parliament because historical patterns of bloc discipline and late-campaign shifts have frequently enabled one side to assemble a majority once seats are allocated, even amid fragmented results. Ongoing security developments and voter consolidation within the nationalist camp remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
Volume
$2,543End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election shows the right-wing and religious bloc led by Likud hovering near or occasionally reaching 61 seats in some surveys, while centrist and opposition groupings often fall just short. The Knesset completed its first full term since 1988 before dissolving in July, setting up a contest where coalition arithmetic hinges on Haredi parties, far-right factions, and potential kingmakers such as Yisrael Beiteinu. Traders assign a 64% implied probability to "No" hung parliament because historical patterns of bloc discipline and late-campaign shifts have frequently enabled one side to assemble a majority once seats are allocated, even amid fragmented results. Ongoing security developments and voter consolidation within the nationalist camp remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,543End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election shows the right-wing and religious bloc led by Likud hovering near or occasionally reaching 61 seats in some surveys, while centrist and opposition groupings often fall just short. The Knesset completed its first full term since 1988 before dissolving in July, setting up a contest where coalition arithmetic hinges on Haredi parties, far-right factions, and potential kingmakers such as Yisrael Beiteinu. Traders assign a 64% implied probability to "No" hung parliament because historical patterns of bloc discipline and late-campaign shifts have frequently enabled one side to assemble a majority once seats are allocated, even amid fragmented results. Ongoing security developments and voter consolidation within the nationalist camp remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions