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Politics·Russia

How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?

icon for How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
Politics·Russia

How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?

325–339 35%

340–354 23%

310–324 22.0%

355+ 12%

Polymarket

$183,728 Vol.

325–339 35%

340–354 23%

310–324 22.0%

355+ 12%

Polymarket

$183,728 Vol.

<280

$26,471 Vol.

3%

280–294

$16,418 Vol.

2%

295–309

$11,830 Vol.

7%

310–324

$14,802 Vol.

22%

325–339

$27,653 Vol.

35%

340–354

$48,592 Vol.

23%

355+

$37,961 Vol.

12%

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.United Russia enters the September 2026 State Duma elections as the dominant ruling party holding a constitutional majority of roughly 324–326 seats from 2021, with trader consensus centering on the 325–339 seat band as the most probable outcome. Recent regional and local elections through 2025 demonstrated strengthened performance, lifting the party’s average seat share in contested legislatures to 81 percent amid centralized candidate selection and limited competition from systemic opposition parties. Preparations including the June 2026 party congress, a streamlined leadership structure under Vladimir Yakushev, and a federal list featuring high-profile Putin loyalists such as Sergei Lavrov have reinforced expectations of disciplined mobilization across single-member districts and the proportional component. The mixed electoral system amplifies United Russia’s structural edge in district races, where independents and aligned candidates routinely consolidate support, while the absence of credible non-systemic challengers and ongoing wartime conditions constrain volatility. Leading ranges cluster tightly because modest shifts in turnout, district-level organization, or opposition vote splitting could move the total by 20–30 seats without threatening overall control, leaving traders focused on fine distinctions within the 310–354 seat window rather than extreme outcomes.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$183,728
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.United Russia enters the September 2026 State Duma elections as the dominant ruling party holding a constitutional majority of roughly 324–326 seats from 2021, with trader consensus centering on the 325–339 seat band as the most probable outcome. Recent regional and local elections through 2025 demonstrated strengthened performance, lifting the party’s average seat share in contested legislatures to 81 percent amid centralized candidate selection and limited competition from systemic opposition parties. Preparations including the June 2026 party congress, a streamlined leadership structure under Vladimir Yakushev, and a federal list featuring high-profile Putin loyalists such as Sergei Lavrov have reinforced expectations of disciplined mobilization across single-member districts and the proportional component. The mixed electoral system amplifies United Russia’s structural edge in district races, where independents and aligned candidates routinely consolidate support, while the absence of credible non-systemic challengers and ongoing wartime conditions constrain volatility. Leading ranges cluster tightly because modest shifts in turnout, district-level organization, or opposition vote splitting could move the total by 20–30 seats without threatening overall control, leaving traders focused on fine distinctions within the 310–354 seat window rather than extreme outcomes.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$183,728
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "325–339" at 35%, followed by "340–354" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 35¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?" has generated $183.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?" is "325–339" at 35%, meaning the market assigns a 35% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "340–354" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.