**Democratic Senate incumbents running for re-election in 2026 have faced limited primary opposition so far, supporting trader consensus that zero will lose renomination.** With 13 Democratic seats on the ballot and only a handful of contested races, established officeholders such as Jon Ossoff in Georgia, Cory Booker in New Jersey, and others have secured or are expected to secure their party’s nomination without notable defeats. Multiple open Democratic seats created by retirements have produced competitive primaries, yet these do not affect incumbent win rates. Primary results through mid-August show no Democratic senator denied renomination, in contrast to several Republican Senate losses and a higher number of House incumbent defeats across parties. Remaining contests, including Massachusetts in September, feature challengers but have not shifted expectations that incumbents will prevail. This pattern aligns with historical base rates where Senate incumbents rarely lose primaries absent major scandals or party realignments, keeping the market’s heaviest weighting on zero losses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?
How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?
0 79%
1 16.0%
2 3.4%
>4 1.4%
$13,988 Vol.
$13,988 Vol.
0
79%
1
16%
2
3%
3
<1%
4
1%
>4
1%
0 79%
1 16.0%
2 3.4%
>4 1.4%
$13,988 Vol.
$13,988 Vol.
0
$8,581 Vol.
79%
1
$1,867 Vol.
16%
2
$1,518 Vol.
3%
3
$697 Vol.
<1%
4
$724 Vol.
1%
>4
$602 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Democratic Senate incumbents running for re-election in 2026 have faced limited primary opposition so far, supporting trader consensus that zero will lose renomination.** With 13 Democratic seats on the ballot and only a handful of contested races, established officeholders such as Jon Ossoff in Georgia, Cory Booker in New Jersey, and others have secured or are expected to secure their party’s nomination without notable defeats. Multiple open Democratic seats created by retirements have produced competitive primaries, yet these do not affect incumbent win rates.
Primary results through mid-August show no Democratic senator denied renomination, in contrast to several Republican Senate losses and a higher number of House incumbent defeats across parties. Remaining contests, including Massachusetts in September, feature challengers but have not shifted expectations that incumbents will prevail. This pattern aligns with historical base rates where Senate incumbents rarely lose primaries absent major scandals or party realignments, keeping the market’s heaviest weighting on zero losses.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Market Opened: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volume
$13,988Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Democratic Senate incumbents running for re-election in 2026 have faced limited primary opposition so far, supporting trader consensus that zero will lose renomination.** With 13 Democratic seats on the ballot and only a handful of contested races, established officeholders such as Jon Ossoff in Georgia, Cory Booker in New Jersey, and others have secured or are expected to secure their party’s nomination without notable defeats. Multiple open Democratic seats created by retirements have produced competitive primaries, yet these do not affect incumbent win rates.
Primary results through mid-August show no Democratic senator denied renomination, in contrast to several Republican Senate losses and a higher number of House incumbent defeats across parties. Remaining contests, including Massachusetts in September, feature challengers but have not shifted expectations that incumbents will prevail. This pattern aligns with historical base rates where Senate incumbents rarely lose primaries absent major scandals or party realignments, keeping the market’s heaviest weighting on zero losses.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$13,988Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic Senate incumbents running for re-election in 2026 have faced limited primary opposition so far, supporting trader consensus that zero will lose renomination.** With 13 Democratic seats on the ballot and only a handful of contested races, established officeholders such as Jon Ossoff in Georgia, Cory Booker in New Jersey, and others have secured or are expected to secure their party’s nomination without notable defeats. Multiple open Democratic seats created by retirements have produced competitive primaries, yet these do not affect incumbent win rates. Primary results through mid-August show no Democratic senator denied renomination, in contrast to several Republican Senate losses and a higher number of House incumbent defeats across parties. Remaining contests, including Massachusetts in September, feature challengers but have not shifted expectations that incumbents will prevail. This pattern aligns with historical base rates where Senate incumbents rarely lose primaries absent major scandals or party realignments, keeping the market’s heaviest weighting on zero losses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
75%
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
65%
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
93%
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