Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?
Tech·AI

Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

icon for Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?
Tech·AI

Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

27% chance
Polymarket
NEW
27% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation establishing a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence becomes law in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Legislation establishes a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence if its enacted text contains provisions in both of the following categories: (1) Standards or testing: the legislation directs a federal agency or body (for example, the National Institute of Standards and Technology) to develop, adopt, or maintain technical standards, benchmarks, testing frameworks, or evaluation capacity for artificial intelligence systems. (2) Transparency, disclosure, or risk management: the legislation requires transparency, disclosure, reporting, or risk-management practices for artificial intelligence systems, either as obligations on private-sector developers or deployers, or as guidelines or frameworks that a federal agency is directed to develop or adopt for use by federal agencies, whether mandatory or voluntary. Findings, sense-of-Congress language, and provisions that only authorize a study or require a one-time report to Congress will not satisfy this category. The qualifying provisions must apply to artificial intelligence systems generally, either government-wide or to private-sector developers or deployers. Provisions that govern only the artificial intelligence systems developed, procured, or used by a single federal department or agency, or only defense, national security, or intelligence applications (for example, Department of Defense or intelligence community provisions in a National Defense Authorization Act or Intelligence Authorization Act), will not qualify. Qualifying provisions may be enacted as a standalone act or as a distinct title or division of a broader act. Pending legislation that this market is intended to capture includes the American Leadership in AI Act (H.R. 8516, 119th Congress) and the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act of 2026 (Obernolte-Trahan discussion draft released June 4, 2026). Whether any legislation qualifies will be determined solely by whether its enacted text satisfies the requirements above, regardless of its title or sponsors. Legislation that satisfies only one of the two categories above will not qualify. Legislation whose artificial intelligence provisions apply only to a single application, sector, or technology (for example, semiconductor or chip export controls, deepfakes or digital replicas, chatbots or companion applications, data centers or their electricity use, autonomous vehicles, or the funding of a research resource such as the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource) will not qualify, even if it contains standards, testing, disclosure, or reporting provisions for that application. Legislation that became law before January 1, 2026, including the National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be Congress.gov's legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Persistent legislative gridlock and partisan disagreements over federal preemption of state rules are the main forces keeping the implied probability of a comprehensive federal AI framework passing before 2028 at just 26%.** As of September 2026, Congress has enacted only narrow measures such as the Take It Down Act on deepfakes, while broader bipartisan proposals like the June 2026 Great American AI Act discussion draft—covering frontier model transparency, third-party audits, and a three-year state preemption sunset—have stalled in committee. The House adjourned without floor action ahead of midterms, Senate Commerce talks remain unresolved on safety guardrails versus innovation priorities, and the Trump administration’s National AI Policy Framework and executive orders emphasize voluntary standards and competitiveness over binding statutes. Key near-term catalysts include post-election sessions and any high-profile large language model safety incidents that could alter momentum.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation establishing a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence becomes law in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Legislation establishes a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence if its enacted text contains provisions in both of the following categories:

(1) Standards or testing: the legislation directs a federal agency or body (for example, the National Institute of Standards and Technology) to develop, adopt, or maintain technical standards, benchmarks, testing frameworks, or evaluation capacity for artificial intelligence systems.

(2) Transparency, disclosure, or risk management: the legislation requires transparency, disclosure, reporting, or risk-management practices for artificial intelligence systems, either as obligations on private-sector developers or deployers, or as guidelines or frameworks that a federal agency is directed to develop or adopt for use by federal agencies, whether mandatory or voluntary. Findings, sense-of-Congress language, and provisions that only authorize a study or require a one-time report to Congress will not satisfy this category.

The qualifying provisions must apply to artificial intelligence systems generally, either government-wide or to private-sector developers or deployers. Provisions that govern only the artificial intelligence systems developed, procured, or used by a single federal department or agency, or only defense, national security, or intelligence applications (for example, Department of Defense or intelligence community provisions in a National Defense Authorization Act or Intelligence Authorization Act), will not qualify. Qualifying provisions may be enacted as a standalone act or as a distinct title or division of a broader act.

Pending legislation that this market is intended to capture includes the American Leadership in AI Act (H.R. 8516, 119th Congress) and the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act of 2026 (Obernolte-Trahan discussion draft released June 4, 2026). Whether any legislation qualifies will be determined solely by whether its enacted text satisfies the requirements above, regardless of its title or sponsors.

Legislation that satisfies only one of the two categories above will not qualify. Legislation whose artificial intelligence provisions apply only to a single application, sector, or technology (for example, semiconductor or chip export controls, deepfakes or digital replicas, chatbots or companion applications, data centers or their electricity use, autonomous vehicles, or the funding of a research resource such as the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource) will not qualify, even if it contains standards, testing, disclosure, or reporting provisions for that application. Legislation that became law before January 1, 2026, including the National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Congress.gov's legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation establishing a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence becomes law in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Legislation establishes a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence if its enacted text contains provisions in both of the following categories: (1) Standards or testing: the legislation directs a federal agency or body (for example, the National Institute of Standards and Technology) to develop, adopt, or maintain technical standards, benchmarks, testing frameworks, or evaluation capacity for artificial intelligence systems. (2) Transparency, disclosure, or risk management: the legislation requires transparency, disclosure, reporting, or risk-management practices for artificial intelligence systems, either as obligations on private-sector developers or deployers, or as guidelines or frameworks that a federal agency is directed to develop or adopt for use by federal agencies, whether mandatory or voluntary. Findings, sense-of-Congress language, and provisions that only authorize a study or require a one-time report to Congress will not satisfy this category. The qualifying provisions must apply to artificial intelligence systems generally, either government-wide or to private-sector developers or deployers. Provisions that govern only the artificial intelligence systems developed, procured, or used by a single federal department or agency, or only defense, national security, or intelligence applications (for example, Department of Defense or intelligence community provisions in a National Defense Authorization Act or Intelligence Authorization Act), will not qualify. Qualifying provisions may be enacted as a standalone act or as a distinct title or division of a broader act. Pending legislation that this market is intended to capture includes the American Leadership in AI Act (H.R. 8516, 119th Congress) and the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act of 2026 (Obernolte-Trahan discussion draft released June 4, 2026). Whether any legislation qualifies will be determined solely by whether its enacted text satisfies the requirements above, regardless of its title or sponsors. Legislation that satisfies only one of the two categories above will not qualify. Legislation whose artificial intelligence provisions apply only to a single application, sector, or technology (for example, semiconductor or chip export controls, deepfakes or digital replicas, chatbots or companion applications, data centers or their electricity use, autonomous vehicles, or the funding of a research resource such as the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource) will not qualify, even if it contains standards, testing, disclosure, or reporting provisions for that application. Legislation that became law before January 1, 2026, including the National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be Congress.gov's legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$512
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 5:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation establishing a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence becomes law in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Legislation establishes a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence if its enacted text contains provisions in both of the following categories: (1) Standards or testing: the legislation directs a federal agency or body (for example, the National Institute of Standards and Technology) to develop, adopt, or maintain technical standards, benchmarks, testing frameworks, or evaluation capacity for artificial intelligence systems. (2) Transparency, disclosure, or risk management: the legislation requires transparency, disclosure, reporting, or risk-management practices for artificial intelligence systems, either as obligations on private-sector developers or deployers, or as guidelines or frameworks that a federal agency is directed to develop or adopt for use by federal agencies, whether mandatory or voluntary. Findings, sense-of-Congress language, and provisions that only authorize a study or require a one-time report to Congress will not satisfy this category. The qualifying provisions must apply to artificial intelligence systems generally, either government-wide or to private-sector developers or deployers. Provisions that govern only the artificial intelligence systems developed, procured, or used by a single federal department or agency, or only defense, national security, or intelligence applications (for example, Department of Defense or intelligence community provisions in a National Defense Authorization Act or Intelligence Authorization Act), will not qualify. Qualifying provisions may be enacted as a standalone act or as a distinct title or division of a broader act. Pending legislation that this market is intended to capture includes the American Leadership in AI Act (H.R. 8516, 119th Congress) and the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act of 2026 (Obernolte-Trahan discussion draft released June 4, 2026). Whether any legislation qualifies will be determined solely by whether its enacted text satisfies the requirements above, regardless of its title or sponsors. Legislation that satisfies only one of the two categories above will not qualify. Legislation whose artificial intelligence provisions apply only to a single application, sector, or technology (for example, semiconductor or chip export controls, deepfakes or digital replicas, chatbots or companion applications, data centers or their electricity use, autonomous vehicles, or the funding of a research resource such as the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource) will not qualify, even if it contains standards, testing, disclosure, or reporting provisions for that application. Legislation that became law before January 1, 2026, including the National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be Congress.gov's legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Persistent legislative gridlock and partisan disagreements over federal preemption of state rules are the main forces keeping the implied probability of a comprehensive federal AI framework passing before 2028 at just 26%.** As of September 2026, Congress has enacted only narrow measures such as the Take It Down Act on deepfakes, while broader bipartisan proposals like the June 2026 Great American AI Act discussion draft—covering frontier model transparency, third-party audits, and a three-year state preemption sunset—have stalled in committee. The House adjourned without floor action ahead of midterms, Senate Commerce talks remain unresolved on safety guardrails versus innovation priorities, and the Trump administration’s National AI Policy Framework and executive orders emphasize voluntary standards and competitiveness over binding statutes. Key near-term catalysts include post-election sessions and any high-profile large language model safety incidents that could alter momentum.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation establishing a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence becomes law in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Legislation establishes a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence if its enacted text contains provisions in both of the following categories:

(1) Standards or testing: the legislation directs a federal agency or body (for example, the National Institute of Standards and Technology) to develop, adopt, or maintain technical standards, benchmarks, testing frameworks, or evaluation capacity for artificial intelligence systems.

(2) Transparency, disclosure, or risk management: the legislation requires transparency, disclosure, reporting, or risk-management practices for artificial intelligence systems, either as obligations on private-sector developers or deployers, or as guidelines or frameworks that a federal agency is directed to develop or adopt for use by federal agencies, whether mandatory or voluntary. Findings, sense-of-Congress language, and provisions that only authorize a study or require a one-time report to Congress will not satisfy this category.

The qualifying provisions must apply to artificial intelligence systems generally, either government-wide or to private-sector developers or deployers. Provisions that govern only the artificial intelligence systems developed, procured, or used by a single federal department or agency, or only defense, national security, or intelligence applications (for example, Department of Defense or intelligence community provisions in a National Defense Authorization Act or Intelligence Authorization Act), will not qualify. Qualifying provisions may be enacted as a standalone act or as a distinct title or division of a broader act.

Pending legislation that this market is intended to capture includes the American Leadership in AI Act (H.R. 8516, 119th Congress) and the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act of 2026 (Obernolte-Trahan discussion draft released June 4, 2026). Whether any legislation qualifies will be determined solely by whether its enacted text satisfies the requirements above, regardless of its title or sponsors.

Legislation that satisfies only one of the two categories above will not qualify. Legislation whose artificial intelligence provisions apply only to a single application, sector, or technology (for example, semiconductor or chip export controls, deepfakes or digital replicas, chatbots or companion applications, data centers or their electricity use, autonomous vehicles, or the funding of a research resource such as the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource) will not qualify, even if it contains standards, testing, disclosure, or reporting provisions for that application. Legislation that became law before January 1, 2026, including the National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Congress.gov's legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation establishing a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence becomes law in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Legislation establishes a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence if its enacted text contains provisions in both of the following categories: (1) Standards or testing: the legislation directs a federal agency or body (for example, the National Institute of Standards and Technology) to develop, adopt, or maintain technical standards, benchmarks, testing frameworks, or evaluation capacity for artificial intelligence systems. (2) Transparency, disclosure, or risk management: the legislation requires transparency, disclosure, reporting, or risk-management practices for artificial intelligence systems, either as obligations on private-sector developers or deployers, or as guidelines or frameworks that a federal agency is directed to develop or adopt for use by federal agencies, whether mandatory or voluntary. Findings, sense-of-Congress language, and provisions that only authorize a study or require a one-time report to Congress will not satisfy this category. The qualifying provisions must apply to artificial intelligence systems generally, either government-wide or to private-sector developers or deployers. Provisions that govern only the artificial intelligence systems developed, procured, or used by a single federal department or agency, or only defense, national security, or intelligence applications (for example, Department of Defense or intelligence community provisions in a National Defense Authorization Act or Intelligence Authorization Act), will not qualify. Qualifying provisions may be enacted as a standalone act or as a distinct title or division of a broader act. Pending legislation that this market is intended to capture includes the American Leadership in AI Act (H.R. 8516, 119th Congress) and the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act of 2026 (Obernolte-Trahan discussion draft released June 4, 2026). Whether any legislation qualifies will be determined solely by whether its enacted text satisfies the requirements above, regardless of its title or sponsors. Legislation that satisfies only one of the two categories above will not qualify. Legislation whose artificial intelligence provisions apply only to a single application, sector, or technology (for example, semiconductor or chip export controls, deepfakes or digital replicas, chatbots or companion applications, data centers or their electricity use, autonomous vehicles, or the funding of a research resource such as the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource) will not qualify, even if it contains standards, testing, disclosure, or reporting provisions for that application. Legislation that became law before January 1, 2026, including the National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be Congress.gov's legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$512
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 5:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Related

icon for U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

8%
icon for US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

11%
icon for US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?

US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?

8%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 26% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 26¢, the market collectively assigns a 26% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?" is 26% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 26% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.