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icon for Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?
Tech·SpaceX

Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?

icon for Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?
Tech·SpaceX

Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?

NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$2 Vol.

Polymarket

August 31, 2026

$1 Vol.

53%

September 30, 2026

$0 Vol.

53%

October 31, 2026

$1 Vol.

59%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX's plan to attempt catching the Starship upper stage, or Ship, with the launch tower's Mechazilla arms on Flight 14 has become the dominant driver of trader sentiment. During an August 4 earnings call, Elon Musk stated the test is targeted for late August 2026, pending regulatory approval, following strong heat-shield performance and vehicle recovery on Flight 13. Multiple prior Super Heavy booster catches have validated the "chopsticks" mechanism, while ongoing V3 vehicle upgrades and rapid flight cadence aim to accelerate reusability timelines. Key near-term catalysts include FAA licensing decisions and launch scheduling, with any delays from technical or regulatory hurdles likely to shift probabilities across monthly resolution windows.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.

If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Volume
$2
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX's plan to attempt catching the Starship upper stage, or Ship, with the launch tower's Mechazilla arms on Flight 14 has become the dominant driver of trader sentiment. During an August 4 earnings call, Elon Musk stated the test is targeted for late August 2026, pending regulatory approval, following strong heat-shield performance and vehicle recovery on Flight 13. Multiple prior Super Heavy booster catches have validated the "chopsticks" mechanism, while ongoing V3 vehicle upgrades and rapid flight cadence aim to accelerate reusability timelines. Key near-term catalysts include FAA licensing decisions and launch scheduling, with any delays from technical or regulatory hurdles likely to shift probabilities across monthly resolution windows.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.

If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Volume
$2
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "October 31, 2026" at 59%, followed by "August 31, 2026" at 53%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 59¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 8, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?" is "October 31, 2026" at 59%, meaning the market assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "August 31, 2026" at 53%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.