The closely matched market-implied odds, with <1,600 ARS/USD at 44% and 1,600–1,699 at 36.5%, reflect trader uncertainty over the pace of peso depreciation through December 2026 under Argentina’s inflation-adjusted exchange-rate band regime. Current levels near 1,492 ARS/USD, combined with monthly inflation near 1.9% and annual rates around 30–33%, support a measured crawl that aligns the band ceiling with prior INDEC data, enabling BCRA reserve accumulation while limiting imported inflation. Recent analyst surveys point to December averages of 1,605–1,652, creating a narrow window where further disinflation or stronger reserve inflows could favor the lower bracket, whereas any acceleration in price pressures or policy adjustments would shift probabilities toward 1,700+. Upcoming inflation releases and central-bank communications remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$21,559 Vol.
$21,559 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1600.00
43%
1600.00–1699.99
36%
1700.00–1799.99
8%
1800.00–1899.99
6%
1900.00–1999.99
1%
2000.00+
3%
$21,559 Vol.
$21,559 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1600.00
$2,450 Vol.
43%
1600.00–1699.99
$1,980 Vol.
36%
1700.00–1799.99
$2,198 Vol.
8%
1800.00–1899.99
$1,626 Vol.
6%
1900.00–1999.99
$11,566 Vol.
1%
2000.00+
$1,740 Vol.
3%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The closely matched market-implied odds, with <1,600 ARS/USD at 44% and 1,600–1,699 at 36.5%, reflect trader uncertainty over the pace of peso depreciation through December 2026 under Argentina’s inflation-adjusted exchange-rate band regime. Current levels near 1,492 ARS/USD, combined with monthly inflation near 1.9% and annual rates around 30–33%, support a measured crawl that aligns the band ceiling with prior INDEC data, enabling BCRA reserve accumulation while limiting imported inflation. Recent analyst surveys point to December averages of 1,605–1,652, creating a narrow window where further disinflation or stronger reserve inflows could favor the lower bracket, whereas any acceleration in price pressures or policy adjustments would shift probabilities toward 1,700+. Upcoming inflation releases and central-bank communications remain the primary near-term catalysts.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$21,559End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The closely matched market-implied odds, with <1,600 ARS/USD at 44% and 1,600–1,699 at 36.5%, reflect trader uncertainty over the pace of peso depreciation through December 2026 under Argentina’s inflation-adjusted exchange-rate band regime. Current levels near 1,492 ARS/USD, combined with monthly inflation near 1.9% and annual rates around 30–33%, support a measured crawl that aligns the band ceiling with prior INDEC data, enabling BCRA reserve accumulation while limiting imported inflation. Recent analyst surveys point to December averages of 1,605–1,652, creating a narrow window where further disinflation or stronger reserve inflows could favor the lower bracket, whereas any acceleration in price pressures or policy adjustments would shift probabilities toward 1,700+. Upcoming inflation releases and central-bank communications remain the primary near-term catalysts.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$21,559End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The closely matched market-implied odds, with <1,600 ARS/USD at 44% and 1,600–1,699 at 36.5%, reflect trader uncertainty over the pace of peso depreciation through December 2026 under Argentina’s inflation-adjusted exchange-rate band regime. Current levels near 1,492 ARS/USD, combined with monthly inflation near 1.9% and annual rates around 30–33%, support a measured crawl that aligns the band ceiling with prior INDEC data, enabling BCRA reserve accumulation while limiting imported inflation. Recent analyst surveys point to December averages of 1,605–1,652, creating a narrow window where further disinflation or stronger reserve inflows could favor the lower bracket, whereas any acceleration in price pressures or policy adjustments would shift probabilities toward 1,700+. Upcoming inflation releases and central-bank communications remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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